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The European Union and its new neighbors: an estimation of migration potentials

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  • Nicolas Péridy

    () (University of Nantes (France))

Abstract

This paper provides a first quantitative assessment of the migration potential involving the enlarged EU and its new neighbors. Based on new theoretical developments in migration theories, it develops an empirical model which highlights the main migration determinants in the EU. As a next step, the model is estimated with the Hausman and Taylor as well as the GMM panel data estimators. The observed/fitted migration ratios are subsequently calculated from an out-sample technique. Results show that there is still a significant migration potential from Maghreb countries towards Southern European countries. A second significant potential concerns the new Eastern neighbors with regard to Germany and Eastern EU countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Péridy, 2006. "The European Union and its new neighbors: an estimation of migration potentials," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(2), pages 1-11.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-05f20010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2002. "What Fundamentals Drive World Migration?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Borjas, George J, 1999. "Immigration and Welfare Magnets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages 607-637, October.
    3. Ximena Clark & Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2002. "Where Do U.S. Immigrants Come From, and Why?," NBER Working Papers 8998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gary L. Hunt & Richard E. Mueller, 2004. "North American Migration: Returns to Skill, Border Effects, and Mobility Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 988-1007, November.
    5. Pedersen, Peder J. & Pytlikova, Mariola & Smith, Nina, 2004. "Selection or Network Effects? Migration Flows into 27 OECD Countries, 1990-2000," IZA Discussion Papers 1104, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Egger, Peter, 2004. "On the Problem of Endogenous Unobserved Effects in the Estimation of Gravity Models," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 19, pages 182-191.
    7. Borjas, George J, 1987. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 531-553, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Suwankiri, Benjarong & Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 2016. "The welfare state and migration: A dynamic analysis of political coalitions," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 122-142.
    2. Assaf Razin, 2013. "MIGRATION into the WELFARE STATE: tax and migration competition," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(4), pages 548-563, August.
    3. Assaf Razin & Jackline Wahba, 2011. "Free vs. Controlled Migration: Bilateral Country Study," NBER Working Papers 16831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Efraim Sadka & Ben Suwankiri & Assaf Razin, 2010. "The Welfare State and the Skill Mix of Migration: Dynamic Policy Formation," 2010 Meeting Papers 13, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Benjarong Suwankiri, 2009. "Migration and the welfare state: Dynamic Political-Economy Theory," NBER Working Papers 14784, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Alon Cohen & Assaf Razin, 2008. "The Skill Composition of Immigrants and the Generosity of the Welfare State: Free vs. Policy-Controlled Migration," NBER Working Papers 14459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Assaf Razin & Alon Cohen, 2009. "International migration and the generosity of the welfare state: free vs policy-controlled migration," 2009 Meeting Papers 200, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Razin, Assaf & Wahba, Jackline, 2011. "Free vs. Restricted Immigration: Bilateral Country Study," IZA Discussion Papers 5546, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

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