IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/aeinde/v1y2001i1_2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causality and Cointegration between Consumption and GDP in 25 OECD countries: limitations of cointegration approach

Author

Listed:
  • Guisan, M.Carmen

Abstract

A critical review of cointegration is presented in this paper, emphasizing some limitations of this approach to testing causal relations in Econometrics. Very often the usual way of analysing cointegration leads researchers to declare many important causal relations as spurious when they are obviously not. On the other hand that approach does not always avoid the peril of accepting as causal relations those that really are spurious. An application of the tests to the relation between Private Consumption and Gross Domestic Product in 25 OECD countries, during the period 1960-97, is performed and the results confirm the above mentioned limitations of cointegration tests. The most extreme case is that of the UK where, in one of the applications, the usual tests lead to rejection of cointegration between british Private Consumption and british GDP and acceptance of cointegration of british Private Consumption with GDP of all the other countries. Regarding cointegration we should take into account two important points: one is that many causal relations with autocorrelation coefficient of residuals near 0.9 show a result of uncertainty, or a result of near cointegration, and should not be counted as rejections. A second, equally important point, is that sometimes the problem of no cointegration among several variables, is due to small problems in the specification of the model, easily avoided with some changes in the form of the dynamic relation, and not to the existence of non-causal relations.

Suggested Citation

  • Guisan, M.Carmen, 2001. "Causality and Cointegration between Consumption and GDP in 25 OECD countries: limitations of cointegration approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 39-61.
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:1:y:2001:i:1_2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/aeid112.pdf
    Download Restriction: No
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lawrence R. Klein, 1981. "Autobiography," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1980-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    2. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Thomas Mayer, 1992. "Truth versus precision in economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 307.
    4. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guisan, M.C. & Iglesias, A., 2002. "Las Industrias Derivadas de la Madera En España (1964-90). Comparacion internacional, modelos econometricos y analisis de causalidad," Economic Development 52, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    2. Arranz, M., 1996. "Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in European Countries: SKIM Model Results and Comparison with other Approaches," Faculty of Economics 04, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Faculty of Economics, Applied Econometric and Quantitative Studies.
    3. Mustafa Akal, 2006. "Causalities Among Growth Related Policy Variables In Turkey, 1950-2004," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(3).
    4. GUISAN, Maria-Carmen, 2023. "Development in the OECD, 1960-2000: Econometric Models and Indicators," ESTUDIOS ECONOMICOS EECHAPTER, in: M. Carmen Guisan Seijas (ed.), Education And International Development, 1960-2000: Economic Studies Of Oecd Countries, Latin America, Europe, Africa And Asia,, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 33-62, Euro-American Association of Economic Development.
    5. Guisan, M.Carmen & Exposito, Pilar, 2002. "Econometric Models of Agriculture in OECD Countries: Production, Income, and Agrarian Employment in Spain, France, Japan, and the Usa, 1965-99," Economic Development 60, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    6. Guisan, M.Carmen, 2002. "Causalidad y cointegracion en modelos econometricos: Aplicaciones a los paises de la OCDE y limitaciones de los tests de cointegracion," Economic Development 61, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    7. Cancelo, M.Teresa & Guisan, M.Carmen & Frias, Isidro, 2001. "Supply and Demand on Manufacturing Output in OECD countries: econometric models and specification test," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 7-42.
    8. Konya, L., 2004. "Export-Led Growth, Growth-Driven Export, Both or None? Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1).
    9. Chowdhury, K, 2005. "What´s Happening to Per Capita Gdp in the ASEAN Countries?. An Analysis of Convergence, 1960-2001," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(3).
    10. Didier Faivre, 2016. "Credit Aggregates, Countercyclical Buffer: stylised facts," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16014, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    11. Guisan, M.C. & Aguayo, E., 2005. "Employment, Development and Research Expenditure in European Union: analysis of causality and comparison with the United States, 1993-2003," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 21-30.
    12. Didier Faivre, 2016. "Credit Aggregates, Countercyclical Buffer: stylised facts," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01281933, HAL.
    13. Campos-González, Jorge & Balcombe, Kelvin, 2024. "The race between education and technology in Chile and its impact on the skill premium," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    14. GUISAN, Maria-Carmen, 2015. "Selected Readings On Econometrics Methodology, 2001-2010: Causality, Measure Of Variables, Dynamic Models And Economic Approaches To Growth And Development," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(2), pages 213-220.
    15. Didier Faivre, 2016. "Credit Aggregates, Countercyclical Buffer: stylised facts," Post-Print halshs-01281933, HAL.
    16. Konya, Laszlo, 2004. "Unit-Root, Cointegration and Granger Causality Test Results for Export and Growth in OECD Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 67-94.
    17. Clegg, Matthew & Krauss, Christopher & Rende, Jonas, 2017. "partialCI: An R package for the analysis of partially cointegrated time series," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2017, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    18. Al-Rjoub, S., 2005. "Effect of Oil Price Shocks in the U.S. for 1985-2004, using VAR, Mixed Dynamic and Granger Causality Approaches," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(3).
    19. Osinubi, T. S. & Amaghionyeodiwe, L. A, 2009. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    3. Sriwena Saleerut & Chalermpon Jatuporn & Vasu Suvanvihok & Apinya Wanaset, 2020. "Price adjustment of oil palm and palm oil in Thailand to the world price of the palm oil market," Asian Journal of Agriculture and rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(2), pages 690-697, December.
    4. Nicholas Taylor, 1998. "Precious metals and inflation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 201-210.
    5. Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Zafar Ahmad Sultan, 2019. "Oil Price and Economic Growth: The Case of Indian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 274-279.
    6. Md. Sharif Hossain & Md. Thasinul Abedin, 2016. "Multivariate Dynamic Co-integration and Causality Analysis between Inflation and its Determinants," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(5), pages 240-250.
    7. R. Santos Alimi, 2014. "ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-Examination of Augmented Fisher Hypothesis in an Open Economy," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114, June.
    8. repec:zbw:rwirep:0557 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Alessandro Magrini & Francesca Giambona, 2022. "A Composite Indicator to Assess Sustainability of Agriculture in European Union Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1003-1036, October.
    10. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Does Banque de France control inflation and unemployment?," Papers 1311.1097, arXiv.org.
    11. Erida Curraj, 2019. "Vintage Design Furniture in Albania, a New Retro Design Paradigm in the Post-Communist Era," European Journal of Engineering and Formal Sciences Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 2, ejef_19.
    12. Bentzen, Jan & Engsted, Tom, 2001. "A revival of the autoregressive distributed lag model in estimating energy demand relationships," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 45-55.
    13. Frey, Gregory E. & Chamberlain, James L. & Prestemon, Jeffrey P., 2018. "The potential for a backward-bending supply curve of non-timber forest products: An empirical case study of wild American ginseng production," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 97-109.
    14. Jacobo Campo Robledo & Juan Pablo Herrera Saavedra, 2016. "Patentes y crecimiento económico: ¿innovación de residentes o no residentes?," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 76.
    15. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    16. Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2013. "Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3473-3482, August.
    17. Mr. Jacques Bouhga-Hagbe, 2004. "A Theory of Workers' Remittances with An Application to Morocco," IMF Working Papers 2004/194, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Dierk Herzer & Philipp Hühne & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2014. "FDI and Income Inequality—Evidence from Latin American Economies," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 778-793, November.
    19. Bühler, Wolfgang & Korn, Olaf, 1998. "Hedging langfristiger Lieferverpflichtungen mit kurzfristigen Futures: möglich oder unmöglich?," ZEW Discussion Papers 98-20, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    20. Charles S. Morris & Robert Neal & Doug Rolph, 1998. "Credit spreads and interest rates : a cointegration approach," Research Working Paper 98-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    21. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2005. "A Resolution of the Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Comparison of Estimators," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 18, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:1:y:2001:i:1_2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. Carmen Guisan (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.