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Causality and Cointegration between Consumption and GDP in 25 OECD countries: limitations of cointegration approach

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  • Guisan, M.Carmen

Abstract

A critical review of cointegration is presented in this paper, emphasizing some limitations of this approach to testing causal relations in Econometrics. Very often the usual way of analysing cointegration leads researchers to declare many important causal relations as spurious when they are obviously not. On the other hand that approach does not always avoid the peril of accepting as causal relations those that really are spurious. An application of the tests to the relation between Private Consumption and Gross Domestic Product in 25 OECD countries, during the period 1960-97, is performed and the results confirm the above mentioned limitations of cointegration tests. The most extreme case is that of the UK where, in one of the applications, the usual tests lead to rejection of cointegration between british Private Consumption and british GDP and acceptance of cointegration of british Private Consumption with GDP of all the other countries. Regarding cointegration we should take into account two important points: one is that many causal relations with autocorrelation coefficient of residuals near 0.9 show a result of uncertainty, or a result of near cointegration, and should not be counted as rejections. A second, equally important point, is that sometimes the problem of no cointegration among several variables, is due to small problems in the specification of the model, easily avoided with some changes in the form of the dynamic relation, and not to the existence of non-causal relations.

Suggested Citation

  • Guisan, M.Carmen, 2001. "Causality and Cointegration between Consumption and GDP in 25 OECD countries: limitations of cointegration approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 39-61.
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:1:y:2001:i:1_2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Klein, Lawrence R., 1981. "Autobiography," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1980-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Konya, Laszlo, 2004. "Unit-Root, Cointegration and Granger Causality Test Results for Export and Growth in OECD Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 67-94.
    2. Al-Rjoub, S., 2005. "Effect of Oil Price Shocks in the U.S. for 1985-2004, using VAR, Mixed Dynamic and Granger Causality Approaches," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(3).
    3. Cancelo, M.Teresa & Guisan, M.Carmen & Frias, Isidro, 2001. "Supply and Demand on Manufacturing Output in OECD countries: econometric models and specification test," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 7-42.
    4. Arranz, M., 1996. "Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in European Countries: SKIM Model Results and Comparison with other Approaches," Faculty of Economics 04, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Faculty of Economics, Applied Econometric and Quantitative Studies.
    5. Guisan, M.C. & Iglesias, A., 2002. "Las Industrias Derivadas de la Madera En España (1964-90). Comparacion internacional, modelos econometricos y analisis de causalidad," Economic Development 52, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    6. Chowdhury, K, 2005. "What´s Happening to Per Capita Gdp in the ASEAN Countries?. An Analysis of Convergence, 1960-2001," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(3).
    7. Guisan, M.C. & Aguayo, E., 2005. "Employment, Development and Research Expenditure in European Union: analysis of causality and comparison with the United States, 1993-2003," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 21-30.
    8. Mustafa Akal, 2006. "Causalities Among Growth Related Policy Variables In Turkey, 1950-2004," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(3).
    9. Konya, L., 2004. "Export-Led Growth, Growth-Driven Export, Both or None? Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1).
    10. Didier Faivre, 2016. "Credit Aggregates, Countercyclical Buffer: stylised facts," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16014, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    11. Osinubi, T. S. & Amaghionyeodiwe, L. A, 2009. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    12. Didier Faivre, 2016. "Credit Aggregates, Countercyclical Buffer: stylised facts," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01281933, HAL.
    13. Guisan, M.Carmen, 2002. "Causalidad y cointegracion en modelos econometricos: Aplicaciones a los paises de la OCDE y limitaciones de los tests de cointegracion," Economic Development 61, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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