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Schwache Preisentwicklung und Deflationsgefahr im Euroraum: Grenzen der konventionellen Geldpolitik

Author

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  • Kerstin Bernoth
  • Marcel Fratzscher
  • Philipp König

Abstract

Inflation in the euro area has been below the European Central Bank's target for almost a year now and it is also expected to remain at a very low level in the near future. On the one hand, such a low level of inflation is not in line with the ECB's objective. On the other hand, there is the risk that this situation will lead to a slide into deflation. In view of the ECB's historically low policy rates, the question arises as to which monetary policy options are available. In order to counteract possible deflation, primarily unconventional measures remain open to the ECB, such as outright purchases of securities. But the onus is also on fiscal and economic policy to actively address low inflation and the risks of deflation. Die Inflationsrate im Euroraum liegt seit knapp einem Jahr unterhalb der von der Europäischen Zentralbank angestrebten Zielmarke und wird voraussichtlich auch in der kommenden Zeit auf einem sehr niedrigen Niveau verharren. Zum einen steht eine solch geringe Inflation nicht im Einklang mit der Zielsetzung der EZB, zum anderen besteht in dieser Situation die Gefahr, in eine Deflation abzurutschen. Angesichts der historisch niedrigen Leitzinsen drängt sich die Frage nach den geldpolitischen Optionen auf. Der Handlungsspielraum der EZB ist beschränkt. Es verbleiben ihr vor allem unkonventionelle Maßnahmen, wie endgültige Käufe von Wertpapieren, um einer etwaigen Deflation entgegenzuwirken. Aber auch die Finanz- und Wirtschaftspolitik ist jetzt gefragt, der niedrigen Inflation und den Deflationsrisiken aktiv zu begegnen.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerstin Bernoth & Marcel Fratzscher & Philipp König, 2014. "Schwache Preisentwicklung und Deflationsgefahr im Euroraum: Grenzen der konventionellen Geldpolitik," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(12), pages 235-249.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:81-12-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; deflation; ECB; Euro Area;

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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