The intergenerational association between migration and early childhood development in Germany: A comparative cross-sectional study of forced and voluntary migrant families (2004–2021)

Background: Family migration shapes early childhood development (ECD), but the link between parental voluntary versus forced migration experiences and ECD remains underexplored. Germany, with its diverse migration streams, offers an opportunity to investigate this interrelation. Objective: This study examines the link between parental migration status and ECD of children aged 2–4 and investigates whether the association between parental mental health and ECD differs by migration background. Methods: Using the German Socio-Economic Panel (2004–2021; N = 1,826), we fit multivariate linear regression models, comparing ECD between children of voluntary and forced migrants. ECD is measured using an adapted version of the Vineland Adaptive Behaviour Scales. Further models account for maternal and paternal mental health scores, using the Mental Component Summary (MCS). Results: Children of forced migrants showed lower early childhood development across all domains compared to children of voluntary migrants, with the largest gaps observed in gross motor skills (β = −0.354, 95% CI: −0.472, −0.237) and social relations (β = −0.239, 95% CI: −0.356, −0.122). Adjustment for parental mental health attenuated these differences but did not eliminate them. Interaction analyses provided no evidence that the association between parental mental health and ECD differed by migration background. Conclusions: Developmental disparities associated with a forced migration background emerge early and persist beyond parental mental health, indicating that individual family resources do not fully explain these inequalities. Contribution: This study demonstrates that early developmental inequalities among children of forced migrants are not primarily driven by parental mental health, highlighting the importance of broader structural conditions.