IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cta/jcppxx/4232.html

Immigration, growth and unemployment nexus: a long-run analysis for Türkiye

Author

Listed:
  • Kemal ErkişI
  • Melike Çetin

Abstract

This study employs VECM, FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR methods to comprehensively explore the diverse effects of total immigration, including regular, irregular, and refugee movements, on unemployment in Türkiye from 2000 to 2022. Model 1 analyzes the overall influence of immigration, revealing a quadratic relationship wherein immigration initially reduces unemployment before triggering subsequent growth. Notably, the study identifies a rise in GDP per capita following increased unemployment linked to immigration, attributed to a surge in refugees, especially post-2013. Refugees, with their informal employment contributions, are seen as positively influencing economic growth, but at the expense of higher unemployment rates. Conversely, Model 2 dissects the effects of regular and irregular immigration, coupled with economic, educational, and inflationary factors, on unemployment. The analysis discerns that irregular immigration heightens unemployment, while regular migration alleviates it. A significant proportion of regular immigration comprises short-term and student permits, contributing positively to economic development and mitigating unemployment. Irregular migration, akin to refugee influx, fosters economic growth through informal employment, adversely impacting formal unemployment rates. The model also reveals a negative association between education and unemployment, emphasizing that heightened education levels lead to skill development and reduced unemployment. Additionally, the study notes the simultaneous rise in unemployment and inflation, potentially linked to informal employment resulting from immigration.

Suggested Citation

  • Kemal ErkişI & Melike Çetin, 2023. "Immigration, growth and unemployment nexus: a long-run analysis for Türkiye," Journal of Community Positive Practices, Catalactica NGO, issue 4, pages 21-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:cta:jcppxx:4232
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://jppc.ro/index.php/jppc/article/download/737/442
    File Function: First version, 2023
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moreno-Galbis, Eva & Tritah, Ahmed, 2016. "The effects of immigration in frictional labor markets: Theory and empirical evidence from EU countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 76-98.
    2. Binnur Balkan & Semih Tumen, 2016. "Immigration and prices: quasi-experimental evidence from Syrian refugees in Turkey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 657-686, July.
    3. Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane & Rault, Christophe, 2013. "Immigration, unemployment and GDP in the host country: Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis on OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 261-269.
    4. repec:hal:cdiwps:halshs-00824924 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Esposito, Piero & Collignon, Stefan & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2020. "The effect of immigration on unemployment in Europe: Does the core-periphery dualism matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 249-258.
    6. Chletsos, Michael & Roupakias, Stelios, 2012. "Immigration, Unemployment and Growth: Empirical Evidence from Greece," MPRA Paper 39861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Lorena Škuflić & Valentina Vučković, 2018. "The effect of emigration on unemployment rates: the case of EU emigrant countries," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1826-1836, January.
    8. Park, Joon Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 2001. "Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 117-161, January.
    9. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00824924 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    11. Tomohara, Akinori, 2022. "Does an increase in the number of immigrant workers reduce unemployment rates? An industry sector unit level analysis in Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 464-476.
    12. Alexandra M. Espinosa & Ignacio Díaz-Emparanza, 2021. "The Long-term Relationship Between International Labour Migration and Unemployment in Spain," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 145-166, March.
    13. O. Damette & V. Fromentin, 2013. "Migration and labour markets in OECD countries: a panel cointegration approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2295-2304, June.
    14. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    15. Robert Breunig & Nathan Deutscher & Hang Thi To, 2017. "The Relationship between Immigration to Australia and the Labour Market Outcomes of Australian-Born Workers," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(301), pages 255-276, June.
    16. Latif, Ehsan, 2015. "The relationship between immigration and unemployment: Panel data evidence from Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 162-167.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Melina Dritsaki & Chaido Dritsaki, 2024. "Immigration, Growth and Unemployment: Panel VAR Evidence From Ε.U. Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(4), pages 19928-19963, December.
    2. Ismail Hakki İscan & Tugba Demire, 2021. "The Effects of Migration on Growth and Unemployment in Developed Countries: A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(35), pages 181-203, December.
    3. Wilman-Santiago Ochoa-Moreno & Byron Quito & María de la Cruz del Río-Rama & Viviana Torres-Díaz, 2025. "Analysis of push and pull factors in net migration in Latin American countries & the Caribbean," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1999-2023, June.
    4. Esposito, Piero & Collignon, Stefan & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2020. "The effect of immigration on unemployment in Europe: Does the core-periphery dualism matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 249-258.
    5. Tomohara, Akinori, 2022. "Does an increase in the number of immigrant workers reduce unemployment rates? An industry sector unit level analysis in Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 464-476.
    6. Alexandra M. Espinosa & Ignacio Díaz-Emparanza, 2023. "Assessing the Spanish immigration policy with frequency-wise causality in Hosoya’s sense," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 111-147, July.
    7. Alexandra M. Espinosa & Ignacio Díaz-Emparanza, 2021. "The Long-term Relationship Between International Labour Migration and Unemployment in Spain," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 145-166, March.
    8. Latif, Ehsan, 2015. "The relationship between immigration and unemployment: Panel data evidence from Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 162-167.
    9. Herwartz, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2006. "Modelling the Fisher hypothesis: World wide evidence," Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    10. Marko Korhonen & Suvi Kangasrääsiö & Rauli Svento, 2017. "Climate change and mortality: Evidence from 23 developed countries between 1960 and 2010," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 5107635, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    11. Katsuya Ito, 2025. "Immigration and Unemployment: New Evidence From 13 European OECD Countries," World Affairs, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 188(3), July.
    12. Lozej, Matija, 2019. "Economic migration and business cycles in a small open economy with matching frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 604-620.
    13. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2019. "Immigration and public finances in OECD countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 116-151.
    14. Youngsoo Bae & Robert M. de Jong, 2007. "Money demand function estimation by nonlinear cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 767-793.
    15. Bhuvan Arora & Hercules Haralambides & Anwesha Aditya, 2026. "Climate change: trends and their effect on seaport activity and infrastructure: insights from major ports of India," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, December.
    16. Masatoshi Jinno & Masaya Yasuoka, 2022. "Economic benefits of immigration for natives: the effects of immigrants through the school system," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 69(2), pages 125-143, June.
    17. Abderraouf Mtiraoui, 2024. "Interaction between Migration and Economic Growth through Unemployment in the Context of Political Instability in the MENA Region," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, vol. 14(1), pages 204-215, January.
    18. Dong, C. & Gao, J. & Linton, O. B. & Peng, B., 2026. "Identification, Estimation and Inference Based on Structural Error Projection," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2653, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    19. Harald Oberhofer & Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl & Peter Huber & Serguei Kaniovski & Klaus Nowotny & Michael Pfaffermayr & Monique Ebell & Nikolaos Kontogiannis, 2016. "Single Market Transmission Mechanisms Before, During and After the 2008-09 Crisis. A Quantitative Assessment," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59156.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cta:jcppxx:4232. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ene Mihai The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ene Mihai to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.jppc.ro/?lang=en .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.