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La intervención cambiaria y los flujos de capital: evidencia empírica para Brasil, Colombia, Chile y México, 2001-2013

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  • Eduardo Rosas Rojas

Abstract

Este artículo investiga las inconsistencias de los supuestos en los que se basa el nuevo consenso macroeconómico, y posteriormente plantea un marco teórico alternativo para comprender el funcionamiento de la intervención cambiaria y del efecto de compensación de los flujos de capital en las economías emergentes de América Latina. Con base en la evidencia empírica para Brasil,Colombia, Chile y México, en el periodo 2001-IV a 2013-III, se infiere que la intervención esterilizada en el mercado de cambios ha cumplido su propósito de estabilizar el tipo de cambio nominal, pero con tres graves consecuencias: pérdida de competitividad, alto endeudamiento público y lento crecimiento económico.******This article examines inconsistencies in the assumptions on which the new macroeconomic consensus is based, before going on to propose an alternative theoretical framework for understanding how exchange rate interventions work, and the compensatory effect of capital flows in the emerging markets of Latin America. Basing its analysis on data from Brazil, Colombia, Chile and Mexico for the period between 2001-4 and 2013-3, it is inferred that sterilizedintervention in the foreign exchange markets has been successful in stabilizing the nominal exchange rate, but with three serious consequences: loss of competitiveness, high levels of public indebtedness and slow economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Rosas Rojas, 2016. "La intervención cambiaria y los flujos de capital: evidencia empírica para Brasil, Colombia, Chile y México, 2001-2013," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 8(1), pages 31-53, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000443:015409
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Gustavo Adler & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora, 2011. "Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Shield Against Appreciation Winds?," IMF Working Papers 2011/165, International Monetary Fund.
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    4. David Archer, 2005. "Foreign exchange market intervention: methods and tactics," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 40-55, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    intervención esterilizada; coeficiente de compensación; tipo de cambio; política monetaria; datos de panel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls

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