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Un modelo de predicciones diarias para contratos de futuros de azúcar

Author

Listed:
  • Julio Alonso Cifuentes

    ()

  • Andrés Arcila Vásquez

    ()

Abstract

El objetivo de este trabajo es estimar el mejor modelo que permita pronosticar los precios internacionales del azúcar en los mercados de Nueva York y Londres. Para ello, se busca alguna relación de largo plazo entre la cotización diaria del WTI y los precios del azúcar en esos dos mercados. Se concluye que no existe cointegración entre estas series, lo que indica la no existencia de dicha relación en el largo plazo. Para identificar la relación en el corto plazo se estimó un VAR diferenciando las series. Se encontró que un modelo ARIMA univariado es el mejor para predecir el precio internacional del azúcar.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio Alonso Cifuentes & Andrés Arcila Vásquez, 2012. "Un modelo de predicciones diarias para contratos de futuros de azúcar," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 6(2), pages 33-51, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000411:010338
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    File URL: http://publicaciones.unitecnologica.edu.co/index.php/economia-y-region/article/view/93
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Zibin & Lohr, Luanne & Escalante, Cesar & Wetzstein, Michael, 2010. "Food versus fuel: What do prices tell us?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 445-451, January.
    2. He, Kaijian & Lai, Kin Keung & Yen, Jerome, 2011. "Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-911, September.
    3. Celma O. Ribeiro & Sydnei M. Oliveira, 2011. "A hybrid commodity price‐forecasting model applied to the sugar–alcohol sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(2), pages 180-198, April.
    4. Meade, Nigel, 2010. "Oil prices -- Brownian motion or mean reversion? A study using a one year ahead density forecast criterion," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1485-1498, November.
    5. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Relación de largo plazo; cointegración; ventanas recursivas; azúcar; bienes primarios; intercambio estacional; pronóstico;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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