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Neutralidad monetaria y deuda externa en dolarización: el caso ecuatoriano desde un enfoque de cointegración

Author

Listed:
  • John Cajas-Guijarro
  • Anthony Pozo-Barrera
  • Doménica Cárdenas-López

Abstract

La neutralidad monetaria tiene consecuencias complejas en economías pequenas, abiertas y dolarizadas. Por ejemplo, puede provocar que el endeudamiento externo empleado como estabilizador del stock de dinero circulante ante shocks exógenos negativos no contribuya al crecimiento económico en tiempos de estancamiento. El objetivo de este artículo es ilustrar esta posibilidad para la economía ecuatoriana empleando una metodología de cointegración y un modelo vectorial de corrección de error (VEC, por su sigla en inglés) para el período 2000-2019 (trimestral). Los resultados de las funciones impulso-respuesta del modelo VEC brindan evidencia a favor de la neutralidad monetaria (sobre todo a largo plazo), mientras que la simulación de un shock petrolero exógeno negativo describe cualitativamente el potencial vínculo entre dinero circulante, endeudamiento externo y producción en dolarización. Al final, se identifican varios patrones monetarios-reales empíricos que podrían motivar a investigaciones futuras enfocadas a una mejor comprensión de la dolarización.

Suggested Citation

  • John Cajas-Guijarro & Anthony Pozo-Barrera & Doménica Cárdenas-López, 2022. "Neutralidad monetaria y deuda externa en dolarización: el caso ecuatoriano desde un enfoque de cointegración," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 92(9), pages 317-377, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000090:020528
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    File URL: https://revistas.uniandes.edu.co/doi/pdf/10.13043/DYS.92.9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
    3. Boschen, John F. & Mills, Leonard O., 1995. "Tests of long-run neutrality using permanent monetary and real shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-44, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    series temporales; macroeconomía; moneda; Ecuador;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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