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Inflation und Staatsverschuldung

  • Karsten Junius
  • Kristian Tödtmann
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    Die seit der Finanzkrise massiv steigende Staatsverschuldung hat die Inflationssorgen vieler Anleger erhöht. Karsten Junius und Kristian Tödtman, DekaBank, zeigen in diesem Artikel, über welche Effekte höhere Inflationsraten zu niedrigeren Staatsschuldenquoten beitragen können. Dazu gehören steigende Einnahmen wie auch eine niedrigere reale Belastung durch die bestehenden Schulden. Die Autoren halten höhere Inflationsraten in keinem Land für wünschenswert. Angesichts stark steigender Staatsschulden stellten höhere Inflationsraten aber auch nur eines von mehreren Übeln dar. Anhand von Simulationen finden Junius und Tödtmann Kriterien, die die Anreize zu einer Inflationierung der Wirtschaft erhöhen. Darauf aufbauend identifizieren sie die Länder, die eine stärkere Neigung zu höheren Inflationsraten haben sollten als andere. Aufgrund der langen Restlaufzeit der Staatsschulden gehört UK klar dazu. Innerhalb der EWU haben Griechenland, Portugal, Irland und Italien größere Inflationsanreize als Deutschland und die Niederlande. Dies könnte die Konfliktpotentiale in der EWU erhöhen.

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    Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

    Volume (Year): 63 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 17 (09)
    Pages: 16-26

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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:63:y:2010:i:17:p:16-26
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    1. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Olivier J. Blanchard & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/03, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2010. "The future of public debt: prospects and implications," BIS Working Papers 300, Bank for International Settlements.
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