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Inflation und Staatsverschuldung

Author

Listed:
  • Karsten Junius
  • Kristian Tödtmann

Abstract

Die seit der Finanzkrise massiv steigende Staatsverschuldung hat die Inflationssorgen vieler Anleger erhöht. Karsten Junius und Kristian Tödtman, DekaBank, zeigen in diesem Artikel, über welche Effekte höhere Inflationsraten zu niedrigeren Staatsschuldenquoten beitragen können. Dazu gehören steigende Einnahmen wie auch eine niedrigere reale Belastung durch die bestehenden Schulden. Die Autoren halten höhere Inflationsraten in keinem Land für wünschenswert. Angesichts stark steigender Staatsschulden stellten höhere Inflationsraten aber auch nur eines von mehreren Übeln dar. Anhand von Simulationen finden Junius und Tödtmann Kriterien, die die Anreize zu einer Inflationierung der Wirtschaft erhöhen. Darauf aufbauend identifizieren sie die Länder, die eine stärkere Neigung zu höheren Inflationsraten haben sollten als andere. Aufgrund der langen Restlaufzeit der Staatsschulden gehört UK klar dazu. Innerhalb der EWU haben Griechenland, Portugal, Irland und Italien größere Inflationsanreize als Deutschland und die Niederlande. Dies könnte die Konfliktpotentiale in der EWU erhöhen.

Suggested Citation

  • Karsten Junius & Kristian Tödtmann, 2010. "Inflation und Staatsverschuldung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(17), pages 16-26, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:63:y:2010:i:17:p:16-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    2. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2010. "The future of public debt: prospects and implications," BIS Working Papers 300, Bank for International Settlements.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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