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Short Term and Event Interdependence Matter: A Political Economy Continuous Model of Civil War

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  • Kauffmann Mayeul

    (Université Pierre Mendès France, Grenoble)

Abstract

This paper builds on several existing empirical models that have been widely used in studying the causes of civil war and/or internal political instability. It begins by showing that some widespread models have been inadequate in both accurately modeling causal relations and time dependence among several kinds of events, and to take advantage of some highly disaggregated (daily) datasets. It does so thanks to graphical comparisons of several existing models and dataset arrangements, followed by an intuitive graphical representation of the proposed model. Then, mathematical tools are used to compare the latter to a particular Generalized Linear Model. It is shown how the proposed model can be implemented practically, and it is finally applied to the period 1962-1997 to study the impact of International Financial Institutions' Structural Adjustment Programs on the risk of civil war.

Suggested Citation

  • Kauffmann Mayeul, 2007. "Short Term and Event Interdependence Matter: A Political Economy Continuous Model of Civil War," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:13:y:2007:i:1:n:1
    DOI: 10.2202/1554-8597.1090
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. ‘Bayo Adekanye, 1995. "Structural Adjustment, Democratization and Rising Ethnic Tensions in Africa," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 355-374, April.
    2. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2000. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-18, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    4. World Bank, 2003. "World Development Indicators 2003," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13920, August.
    5. Hegre, Håvard, 2001. "Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 95(1), pages 33-48, March.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Levan Elbakidze & Yanhong Jin, 2012. "Victim Countries of Transnational Terrorism: An Empirical Characteristics Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(12), pages 2152-2165, December.

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