The Growing Influence of Emerging Countries in the World Car Industry: An Estimation of Export Potentials in a World Trade Model
In the past ten years, emerging countries have considerably increased their production of cars. Although their share in world exports is still below 10%, these countries are now ready to conquer international markets, since they can produce on a large scale at very low production costs compared with the Northern standards. Given the lack of literature on this topic, the main contribution of this paper is to investigate the export potential of emerging countries in the automotive industry. Based on new developments in the gravity equation, an original world trade model is applied to the car industry. The export potentials are calculated from the residuals of the model with the out-sample technique. The main results show that several large emerging countries enjoy a very significant export potential. These are mainly China, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, Iran, Thailand as well as Indonesia. The growing influence of these countries has strong implications for the Triad. Indeed, Japan, Germany and small European countries have already surpassed their export potential. In fact, only North American countries still exhibit a significant export potential, because their export level is currently low in comparison to what it should be given their huge economic size.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://www.degruyter.com|
|Order Information:||Web: https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/gej|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Evenett, S. J. & Keller, W., 1994.
"On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation,"
9713, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1998. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," NBER Working Papers 6529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1996. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," International Trade 9608001, EconWPA, revised 13 Jun 1997.
- Peter Egger, "undated".
"European Exports and Outward Foreign Direct Investment. A Dynamic Panel Data Approach,"
WIFO Working Papers
- Peter Egger, 2001. "European exports and outward foreign direct investment: A dynamic panel data approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 137(3), pages 427-449, September.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001.
"Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle,"
NBER Working Papers
8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Robert C. Shelburne, 2002. "Bilateral Intra-Industry Trade in a Multi-Country Helpman-Krugman Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 53-73.
- Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010.
"Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data,"
MIT Press Books,
The MIT Press,
edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588.
- Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262232197.
- Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2006. "Governance matters V: aggregate and individual governance indicators for 1996 - 2005," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4012, The World Bank.
- Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
- Egger, Peter, 2004.
"On the Problem of Endogenous Unobserved Effects in the Estimation of Gravity Models,"
Journal of Economic Integration,
Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 19, pages 182-191.
- Peter Egger, "undated". "On the Problem of Endogenous Unobserved Effects in the Estimation of Gravity Models," WIFO Working Papers 132, WIFO.
- Javad Abedini & Nicolas Péridy, 2009. "The Emergence of Iran in the World Car Industry: An Estimation of its Export Potential," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5), pages 790-818, 05.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:8:y:2008:i:3:n:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.