IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

The Growing Influence of Emerging Countries in the World Car Industry: An Estimation of Export Potentials in a World Trade Model

Listed author(s):
  • Peridy Nicolas J

    ()

    (Université du Sud Toulon-Var)

  • Abedini Javad

    ()

    (Université de Nantes)

In the past ten years, emerging countries have considerably increased their production of cars. Although their share in world exports is still below 10%, these countries are now ready to conquer international markets, since they can produce on a large scale at very low production costs compared with the Northern standards. Given the lack of literature on this topic, the main contribution of this paper is to investigate the export potential of emerging countries in the automotive industry. Based on new developments in the gravity equation, an original world trade model is applied to the car industry. The export potentials are calculated from the residuals of the model with the out-sample technique. The main results show that several large emerging countries enjoy a very significant export potential. These are mainly China, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, Iran, Thailand as well as Indonesia. The growing influence of these countries has strong implications for the Triad. Indeed, Japan, Germany and small European countries have already surpassed their export potential. In fact, only North American countries still exhibit a significant export potential, because their export level is currently low in comparison to what it should be given their huge economic size.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/gej.2008.8.3/gej.2008.8.3.1394/gej.2008.8.3.1394.xml?format=INT
Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Global Economy Journal.

Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 1-28

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:8:y:2008:i:3:n:5
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://www.degruyter.com

Order Information: Web: https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/gej

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Evenett, S. J. & Keller, W., 1994. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Working papers 9713, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  3. Robert C. Shelburne, 2002. "Bilateral Intra-Industry Trade in a Multi-Country Helpman-Krugman Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 53-73.
  4. Javad Abedini & Nicolas Péridy, 2009. "The Emergence of Iran in the World Car Industry: An Estimation of its Export Potential," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5), pages 790-818, 05.
  5. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
  6. Egger, Peter, 2004. "On the Problem of Endogenous Unobserved Effects in the Estimation of Gravity Models," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 19, pages 182-191.
  7. Peter Egger, "undated". "European Exports and Outward Foreign Direct Investment. A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," WIFO Working Papers 129, WIFO.
  8. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262232197.
  9. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2006. "Governance matters V: aggregate and individual governance indicators for 1996 - 2005," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4012, The World Bank.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:8:y:2008:i:3:n:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.