IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/germec/v26y2025i1p1-14n1002.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Note on the Optimal Speed of Transition: Aghion and Blanchard Revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Nævdal Eric

    (HVL Business School, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Sogndal, Norway)

  • Wagner Martin

    (Department of Economics, University of Klagenfurt, Klagenfurt, Austria)

Abstract

This note illustrates, by reconsidering the seminal optimal speed-of-transition model of Aghion, P., and O. J. Blanchard. (1994. “On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual 9: 283–319), that optimal transition paths, in general, exhibit nonlinearities and discontinuities. Aghion and Blanchard consider only an approximate solution with a constant unemployment rate over the transition process. The exact solution features an increasing unemployment rate with a discontinuity when the state sector is closed down at the optimally chosen endpoint of transition. Economic transition problems bear many similarities to scrap value problems with free terminal time, often encountered in resource economics. In relation to the transition to a green economy, the discussion in this note therefore casts doubt on the optimality of a green transition discussed in, e.g., the European Union in terms of politically specified rather than optimally designed milestones for emissions reductions, i.e., by −55 % compared to 1990 levels until 2030 and net zero until 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Nævdal Eric & Wagner Martin, 2025. "A Note on the Optimal Speed of Transition: Aghion and Blanchard Revisited," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:26:y:2025:i:1:p:1-14:n:1002
    DOI: 10.1515/ger-2024-0054
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2024-0054
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/ger-2024-0054?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Hassler & Per Krusell & Conny Olovsson, 2024. "The macroeconomics of climate change: Starting points, tentative results, and a way forward," Working Paper Series WP24-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 283-330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Gérard Roland, 2004. "Transition and Economics: Politics, Markets, and Firms," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026268148x, December.
    4. Boeri, Tito, 2000. "Structural Change, Welfare Systems, and Labour Reallocation: Lessons from the Transition of Formerly Planned Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293651.
    5. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2012. "The Green Paradox: A Supply-Side Approach to Global Warming," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262016680, December.
    6. Castanheira, Micael & Roland, Gerard, 2000. "The Optimal Speed of Transition: A General Equilibrium Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 219-239, February.
    7. Marek Dabrowski, . "A limping transition- the former Soviet Union thirty years on," Bruegel Book, Bruegel, number node_8748.
    8. Hassler, John & Krusell, Per & Olovsson, Conny, 2022. "Finite resources and the world economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Brixiova, Zuzana & Yousef, Tarik, 2000. "Labor market adjustment in transition economies with on-the-job search," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 223-229, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
    2. Campos, Nauro F. & Horváth, Roman, 2006. "Reform Redux: Measurement, Determinants and Reversals," IZA Discussion Papers 2093, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Štěpán Jurajda & Katherine Terrell, 2003. "Job growth in early transition: Comparing two paths," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(2), pages 291-320, June.
    4. Gerhard Glomm & Fabio Mendez, 2005. "Does Inefficiency Justify Privatization? The Case of Intermediate Industry Monopolies," Macroeconomics 0507024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Stepan Jurajda & Katherine Terrell, 2001. "What Drives the Speed of Job Reallocation during Episodes of Massive Adjustment?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp170, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    6. David Aristei & Cristiano Perugini, 2014. "Speed and Sequencing of Transition Reforms and Income Inequality: A Panel Data Analysis," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(3), pages 542-570, September.
    7. Tyrowicz, Joanna & van der Velde, Lucas, 2018. "Labor reallocation and demographics," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 381-412.
    8. John E. Jackson & Bogdan W. Mach, 2009. "Job creation, job destruction, labour mobility and wages in Poland, 1988–19981," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 17(3), pages 503-530, July.
    9. Kecmanovic, Milica, 2012. "Men's wage inequality in Serbia's transition," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 65-86.
    10. Micael Castanheira, 2003. "Public finance and the optimal speed of transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(3), pages 435-462, September.
    11. Joanna Tyrowicz & Lucas van der Velde, 2014. "Can We Really Explain Worker Flows in Transition Economies?," Working Papers 2014-28, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    12. Anna Maria Ferragina & Francesco Pastore, 2008. "Mind The Gap: Unemployment In The New Eu Regions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 73-113, February.
    13. Jurajda, Stepán & Terrell, Katherine, 2008. "Job Reallocation in Two Cases of Massive Adjustment in Eastern Europe," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2144-2169, November.
    14. Stepan Jurajda & Katherine Terrell, 2000. "Optimal Speed of Transition: Micro Evidence from the Czech Republic," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 355, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    15. Balla, Katalin & Köllo, János & Simonovits, András, 2008. "Transition with heterogeneous labor," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 203-220, September.
    16. Gerard Rpland, 2001. "The Political Economy of Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 413, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    17. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
    18. Köllő, János & Simonovits, András & Balla, Katalin, 2006. "Transzformációs sokk heterogén munkaerőpiacon [Transformation shock on a heterogeneous labour market]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 485-508.
    19. Lamo, Ana & Messina, Julián & Wasmer, Etienne, 2011. "Are specific skills an obstacle to labor market adjustment?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 240-256, April.
    20. DELL'ANNO, Roberto & VILLA, Stefania, 2012. "Growth in Transition Countries: Big Bang versus Gradualism," CELPE Discussion Papers 122, CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic optimization; end-of-transition; optimal unemployment rate; transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:26:y:2025:i:1:p:1-14:n:1002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.