IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/evoice/v22y2025i1p25-46n1006.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial Stability and Monetary Policy Autonomy in Japan. Should Japan Peg the Yen to the Dollar?

Author

Listed:
  • Schnabl Gunther

    (Flossbach von Storch Research Institute, Cologne, Germany)

  • Schürmann Christof

    (Flossbach von Storch Research Institute, Cologne, Germany)

Abstract

Given rising inflation the Bank of Japan has come under pressure to tighten monetary policy. The paper examines the risks of an interest rate hike for the sustainability of Japanese government debt, the Bank of Japan and the Japanese financial sector and derives possible repercussions for national and international financial stability. It finds significant valuation and currency risks in the private financial sector that limit the Bank of Japan’s room for manoeuvre. Pegging the yen to the dollar would eliminate appreciation expectations and reduce inflation risk. The loss of freedom in monetary policy making would be small.

Suggested Citation

  • Schnabl Gunther & Schürmann Christof, 2025. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy Autonomy in Japan. Should Japan Peg the Yen to the Dollar?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 25-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:evoice:v:22:y:2025:i:1:p:25-46:n:1006
    DOI: 10.1515/ev-2024-0078
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/ev-2024-0078
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/ev-2024-0078?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2005. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1144-1166, September.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-1977, December.
    3. Basu, Parantap & Wada, Kenji, 2023. "Unconventional monetary policy and the bond market in Japan: A new Keynesian perspective," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Gunther Schnabl, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Structural Decline: Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 14(1), pages 124-150, Winter/Sp.
    5. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    6. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regime, Financial Market Bubbles and Long-term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(1), pages 32-57, January.
    2. Latsos Sophia, 2018. "Real Wage Effects of Japan’s Monetary Policy," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 69(1), pages 177-215, July.
    3. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2016. "Adverse Effects of Ultra-Loose Monetary Policies on Investment, Growth and Income Distribution," CESifo Working Paper Series 5754, CESifo.
    4. Schnabl, Gunther & Murai, Taiki, 2020. "The Japanese banks in the lasting low-, zero- and negative-interest rate environment," Working Papers 169, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    5. Pablo Duarte & Gunther Schnabl, 2019. "Monetary policy, inequality and political instability," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 614-634, February.
    6. Gunther Schnabl, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Structural Decline: Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 14(1), pages 124-150, Winter/Sp.
    7. Juliane Gerstenberger & Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "The Impact of Japanese Monetary Policy Crisis Management on the Japanese Banking Sector," CESifo Working Paper Series 6440, CESifo.
    8. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "The Failure of ECB Monetary Policy from a Mises-Hayek Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 6388, CESifo.
    9. Suarez, Javier & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2018. "Approaching non-performing loans from a macroprudential angle," Report of the Advisory Scientific Committee 7, European Systemic Risk Board.
    10. George Halkos & Roman Matousek & Nickolaos Tzeremes, 2016. "Pre-evaluating technical efficiency gains from possible mergers and acquisitions: evidence from Japanese regional banks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 47-77, January.
    11. Kearney, Colm & Muckley, Cal, 2008. "Can the traditional Asian US dollar peg exchange rate regime be extended to include the Japanese yen?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 870-885, December.
    12. Kaoru Hosono & Koji Sakai & Kotaro Tsuru, 2009. "Consolidation of Banks in Japan: Causes and Consequences," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, pages 265-309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Koibuchi, Satoshi, 2007. "The impacts of "shock therapy" on large and small clients: Experiences from two large bank failures in Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 434-451, November.
    14. Chakrabarti, Prasenjit & Kaur, Jasmeet, 2024. "Zombie-lending during the pandemic in India: Did the Central Bank reduce credit misallocation concerns of forbearance?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 153-170.
    15. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2015. "Inflation Targeting and its Discontents: The Case of Poland," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 65(supplemen), pages 107-122, December.
    16. Raphael Fischer & Gunther Schnabl, 2018. "Regional heterogeneity, the rise of public debt and monetary policy in post-bubble Japan: lessons for the EMU," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 405-428, April.
    17. Fricke, Daniel & Roukny, Tarik, 2020. "Generalists and specialists in the credit market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    18. Ono, Arito & Uchida, Hirofumi & Udell, Gregory F. & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2021. "Lending pro-cyclicality and macroprudential policy: Evidence from Japanese LTV ratios," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    19. Cheung, Jeff Kin Wai & Imai, Masami, 2024. "Zombie lending, labor hoarding, and local industry growth," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    20. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Andrzej Torój, 2019. "In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1028-1053, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:evoice:v:22:y:2025:i:1:p:25-46:n:1006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyterbrill.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.