IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v31y2008i5p685-700.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Trade Effects of the EU–Turkey Customs Union

Author

Listed:
  • Antonis Adam
  • Thomas Moutos

Abstract

In the present study we argue that the salient features of both the EU‐15 countries and Turkey are conducive to making the effects of the 1995 EU–Turkey customs union asymmetric among the incumbent EU countries. In order to support our argument we rely on a model in which trade involves the exchange of vertically differentiated products. This model generates the prediction that the more contiguous an incumbent country is to the joining country in terms of technological sophistication, the larger will be the crowding out of this country's exports to the other incumbent countries as a result of the CU expansion. Using a gravity model we estimate the effects of the customs union between Turkey and the EU‐15 by differentiating between exports from (a) lower‐technology EU‐15 countries (we term this group of countries ‘South’) to higher‐technology EU‐15 countries (the ‘North’), (b) North to South, (c) South to Turkey, (d) North to Turkey, and (e) Turkey to EU‐15. Our econometric results indicate that, in contrast to North's exports to the other EU‐15 countries (which have remained intact), the Southern countries’ exports to the other EU‐15 countries have declined as a result of the CU. Moreover, the extra penetration of the Turkish market by the EU‐15 countries has not been more favourable to the Southern group.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonis Adam & Thomas Moutos, 2008. "The Trade Effects of the EU–Turkey Customs Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 685-700, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:31:y:2008:i:5:p:685-700
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2008.01099.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2008.01099.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2008.01099.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonis Adam & Thomas Moutos, 2005. "Turkish Delight for Some, Cold Turkey for Others?: The Effects of the EU-Turkey Customs Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1550, CESifo.
    2. Bilin Neyaptı & Fatma Taskın & Murat Ungor, 2007. "Has European Customs Union Agreement really affected Turkey's trade?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2121-2132.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, October.
    4. Julia Spies & Helena Marques, 2006. "Trade Effects of the Europe Agreements," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 274/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christopher S. P. Magee, 2016. "Trade creation, trade diversion, and the general equilibrium effects of regional trade agreements: a study of the European Community–Turkey customs union," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 383-399, May.
    2. Hüseyin Aytuğ & Merve Mavuş Kütük & Arif Oduncu & Sübidey Togan, 2017. "Twenty Years of the EU-Turkey Customs Union: A Synthetic Control Method Analysis," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 419-431, May.
    3. Antonis Adam & Thomas Moutos, 2012. "Capital Importers Pay More for their Imports," CESifo Working Paper Series 3723, CESifo.
    4. Mehmet Ugur, 2010. "Open‐Ended Membership Prospect and Commitment Credibility: Explaining the Deadlock in EU–Turkey Accession Negotiations," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 967-991, September.
    5. Sanjeev Vasudevan & M. Suresh Babu, 2021. "Global production sharing and trade effects: an analysis of Eurasian Economic Union," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(4), pages 633-665, December.
    6. Türkcan, Kemal, 2014. "Investigating the Role of Extensive Margin, Intensive Margin, Price and Quantity Components on Turkey’s Export Growth during 1998-2011," MPRA Paper 53292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Natalya Ketenci, 2017. "The Effect of the European Union Customs Union on the Balance of Trade in Turkey," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 52(4), pages 219-232, November.
    8. Türkcan, Kemal & Pişkin, Erhan, 2014. "Ticaret Anlaşmalarının Türkiye’nin İhracat Dinamiğine Etkisi: Yaygın ve Yoğun Ticaret [The Effects of the Trade Agreements on the Dynamics of Turkey’s Export: Extensive and Intensive Margins]," MPRA Paper 59841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Dursun, Gökhan, 2023. "The impact of the customs union on the EU – Turkey trade," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 143-163.
    10. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.
    11. Mario Larch & Aiko F. Schmeißer & Joschka Wanner, 2021. "A Tale of (almost) 1001 Coefficients: The Deep and Heterogeneous Effects of the EU‐Turkey Customs Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 242-260, March.
    12. Antonis Adam, 2009. "Fiscal Reliance on Tariff Revenues: In Search of a Political Economy Explanation?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 610-625, November.
    13. N. Nergiz Dincer & Ayça Tekin-Koru & Pinar Yaşar, 2018. "Costs of a missing FTA: the case of Turkey and Algeria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 489-505, August.
    14. Julian Frede & Hakan Yetkiner, 2017. "The regional trade dynamics of Turkey: a panel data gravity model," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 633-648, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Natalya Ketenci, 2017. "The Effect of the European Union Customs Union on the Balance of Trade in Turkey," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 52(4), pages 219-232, November.
    2. Bulent Esiyok, 2015. "Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Increase Imports To Turkey? An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 23-35, June.
    3. Isabel PROENÇA & Enrique MARTINEZ-GALÁN & Maria Paula FONTOURA, 2017. "Trade Potential Revisited: A Panel Data Analysis For Zimbabwe," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 17(1), pages 113-130.
    4. Islam, Sulequl, 2003. "Expansions of the European Union and the NAFTA: Implications for New and Non-Member countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).
    5. Nilanjan Banik & John Gilbert, 2010. "Regional Integration and Trade Costs in South Asia," Chapters, in: Douglas H. Brooks & Susan F. Stone (ed.), Trade Facilitation and Regional Cooperation in Asia, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2011. "The Limits to Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Peter Egger & Douglas Nelson, 2011. "How Bad Is Antidumping? Evidence from Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1374-1390, November.
    8. Erik Marel & Ben Shepherd, 2013. "Services Trade, Regulation and Regional Integration: Evidence from Sectoral Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(11), pages 1393-1405, November.
    9. Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2005. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 135-152, April.
    10. Philippa Dee & Jyothi Gali, 2005. "The Trade and Investment Effects of Preferential Trading Arrangements," NBER Chapters, in: International Trade in East Asia, pages 133-176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Marcus Noland, 2005. "Affinity and International Trade," Working Paper Series WP05-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    12. Lucian Cernat, 2003. "Assessing South–South Regional Integration: Same Issues, Many Metrics," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 21, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    13. William R Kerr, 2018. "Heterogeneous Technology Diffusion and Ricardian Trade Patterns," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 32(1), pages 163-182.
    14. Cullen F. Goenner, 2013. "Mission accomplished: A reply to Reuveny and Keshk," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(1), pages 19-23, February.
    15. Christopher Edmonds & Sumner J. La Croix & Yao Li, 2006. "The China's Rise as an International Trading Power," Economics Study Area Working Papers 88, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    16. Festus Ebo Turkson, 2012. "Trade Agreements and Bilateral Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa: Estimating the Trade Effects of the EU-ACP PTA and RTAs," Discussion Papers 12/07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    17. Roberta De Santis, 2012. "Impact of Environmental Regulations on Trade in the Main EU Countries: Conflict or Synergy?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7), pages 799-815, July.
    18. Samrat Roy & Chanchal Chatterjee, 2013. "Dynamics of Trade Potentials in ‘Emerging Asia’ in the Post Financial Crisis Era," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 14(4), pages 639-650, December.
    19. Guglielmo Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "On the bilateral trade effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 573-573, October.
    20. Xuepeng Liu & Emanuel Ornelas, 2014. "Free Trade Agreements and the Consolidation of Democracy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 29-70, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:31:y:2008:i:5:p:685-700. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.