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Consumer Expectations: A Residual Based Approach

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  • Fahd Rehman
  • Russel J. Cooper

Abstract

This paper presents an economy‐wide consumer expectations indicator that reflects different degrees of optimism or pessimism with respect to consumers’ confidence in their economy. The indicator provides a useful complement to traditional economic indicators that are frequently used to compare countries, such as gross domestic product (GDP) in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Our indicator may be seen as representing the influence of social wealth on economic behavior–that is, of effects left out of a standard economic analysis. We use a theoretical approach to integrate the expectations measure with the International Comparison Program's (ICP) PPP GDP statistics which produces a measure we term “effective GDP.” Compared to the ICP's PPP figures, the measure of “effective GDP” differs from the ICP's PPP estimates by as much as four to five percent in the positive direction for apparently optimistic countries and as much as two percent downwards for pessimists.

Suggested Citation

  • Fahd Rehman & Russel J. Cooper, 2017. "Consumer Expectations: A Residual Based Approach," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(4), pages 841-866, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:63:y:2017:i:4:p:841-866
    DOI: 10.1111/roiw.12227
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cooper, Russel J. & McLaren, Keith R. & Rehman, Fahd & Szewczyk, Wojciech A., 2015. "Economic welfare evaluation in an era of rapid technological change," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 38-40.
    2. Kenneth W. Clements & Dongling Chen, 2010. "Affluence and Food: A Simple Way to Infer Incomes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(4), pages 909-926.
    3. Grace Gao, 2012. "World Food Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(1), pages 25-51.
    4. Rehman, Fahd & Cooper, Russel J., 2014. "Regular Effective Demand Systems (REDS)," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 255-257.
    5. Russel J. Cooper & Keith R. McLaren, 1992. "An Empirically Oriented Demand System with Improved Regularity Properties," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 652-668, August.
    6. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
    7. Bruce W. Hamilton, 2001. "Using Engel's Law to Estimate CPI Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 619-630, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fahd Rehman, 2020. "Optimism and pessimism: A cross‐country comparison," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(11), pages 3025-3038, November.

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