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Speculators and Price Overreaction in the Housing Market

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  • Yuming Fu
  • Wenlan Qian

Abstract

type="main"> This paper investigates the role of speculators in the housing market, specifically their contribution to price overreaction through positive feedback trading (or momentum trading). We exploit a unique data set of condominium transactions in a residential real estate market where transaction traits associated with short-term speculation can be identified. In the cross-section of housing projects, a 10-percentage-point increase in trading activity following a strong short-run market price rise predicts a negative subsequent monthly price change of 0.5% at the project level. Moreover, the price reversal effect associated with the momentum trading by short-term speculators is two to three times stronger, and holding such trading constant, momentum trading in general has little additional impact. Our findings further suggest that momentum trading by short-term speculators contributes to price overreaction largely in submarkets with lower information efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuming Fu & Wenlan Qian, 2014. "Speculators and Price Overreaction in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 977-1007, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:42:y:2014:i:4:p:977-1007
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1540-6229.12071
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Anthony A. DeFusco & Charles G. Nathanson & Eric Zwick, 2017. "Speculative Dynamics of Prices and Volume," NBER Working Papers 23449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Henry J. Munneke & Joseph T. L. Ooi & C. F. Sirmans & Geoffrey K. Turnbull, 2019. "Testing for Price Anomalies in Sequential Sales," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 517-543, May.
    4. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2016. "Overreaction to policy changes in the housing market: Evidence from Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 26-41.
    5. Pace, R. Kelley & Zhu, Shuang, 2019. "The influence of house, seller, and locational factors on the probability of sale," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 72-82.

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