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Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) and Market Efficiency with Respect to Costly Information

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  • Andreas D. Christopoulos
  • Robert A. Jarrow
  • Yildiray Yildirim

Abstract

Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) are complex asset-backed securities trading in markets that do not currently use derivatives pricing technology. This lack of usage is due to the complexity of the modeling exercise, and only the recent and costly availability of historical data. As such, CMBS markets provide a natural environment for the testing of market efficiency with respect to this costly information. Using this information, this article develops a CMBS pricing model to provide a joint test of the model and market efficiency. Backtesting our pricing model for 4 years, although there is some evidence of abnormal trading profits, we cannot reject the efficiency of the CMBS markets. Copyright 2008 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas D. Christopoulos & Robert A. Jarrow & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) and Market Efficiency with Respect to Costly Information," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 441-498, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:36:y:2008:i:3:p:441-498
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Umut Çetin & Robert Jarrow & Philip Protter & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Modeling Credit Risk With Partial Information," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 23, pages 579-590 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. McConnell, John J & Singh, Manoj, 1994. " Rational Prepayments and the Valuation of Collateralized Mortgage Obligations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 891-921, July.
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    5. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Fan Yu, 2008. "Default Risk And Diversification: Theory And Empirical Implications," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 19, pages 455-480 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    7. Jacquier, Eric & Jarrow, Robert, 2000. "Bayesian analysis of contingent claim model error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 145-180.
    8. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-664, May.
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    10. Childs, Paul D. & Ott, Steven H. & Riddiough, Timothy J., 1996. "The Pricing of Multiclass Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(04), pages 581-603, December.
    11. Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Estimating Default Probabilities of CMBS Loans with Clustering and Heavy Censoring," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 93-111, August.
    12. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Sudheer Chava & Robert A. Jarrow, 2008. "Bankruptcy Prediction with Industry Effects," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 21, pages 517-549 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Titman, Sheridan D & Torous, Walter N, 1989. " Valuing Commercial Mortgages: An Empirical Investigation of the Contingent-Claims Approach to Pricing Risky Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 345-373, June.
    16. Stanton, Richard, 1995. "Rational Prepayment and the Valuation Mortgage-Backed Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 677-708.
    17. Umut Çetin & Robert A. Jarrow & Philip Protter, 2008. "Liquidity risk and arbitrage pricing theory," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 8, pages 153-183 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Ambrose, Brent W & Sanders, Anthony B, 2003. "Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities: Prepayment and Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 179-196, March-May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brent Ambrose & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Credit Risk and the Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Reduced Form Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 281-298, October.
    2. James Kau & Donald Keenan & Yildiray Yildirim, 2009. "Estimating Default Probabilities Implicit in Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS)," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 107-117, August.
    3. repec:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9579-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jarrow, Robert A., 2011. "Credit market equilibrium theory and evidence: Revisiting the structural versus reduced form credit risk model debate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 2-7, March.
    5. Christopoulos, Andreas D. & Barratt, Joshua G., 2016. "Credit risk findings for commercial real estate loans using the reduced form," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 228-234.
    6. Christopoulos, Andreas D., 2017. "The composition of CMBS risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 215-239.
    7. Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Estimating Default Probabilities of CMBS Loans with Clustering and Heavy Censoring," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 93-111, August.
    8. Brent Ambrose & Michael Shafer & Yildiray Yildirim, 2018. "The Impact of Tenant Diversification on Spreads and Default Rates for Mortgages on Retail Properties," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-32, January.
    9. Driessen, Joost & Van Hemert, Otto, 2012. "Pricing of commercial real estate securities during the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 37-61.

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