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Estimating Default Probabilities Implicit in Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS)

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  • James Kau
  • Donald Keenan
  • Yildiray Yildirim

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  • James Kau & Donald Keenan & Yildiray Yildirim, 2009. "Estimating Default Probabilities Implicit in Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS)," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 107-117, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:39:y:2009:i:2:p:107-117
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-008-9112-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dennis R. Capozza & Dick Kazarian & Thomas A. Thomson, 1997. "Mortgage Default in Local Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 631-655, December.
    2. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C., 1999. "Patterns of rational default," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 765-785, November.
    3. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    4. Brian A. Ciochetti & Yongheng Deng & Bin Gao & Rui Yao, 2002. "The Termination of Commercial Mortgage Contracts through Prepayment and Default: A Proportional Hazard Approach with Competing Risks," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 595-633.
    5. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    6. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    8. Wayne R. Archer & Peter J. Elmer & David M. Harrison & David C. Ling, 2002. "Determinants of Multifamily Mortgage Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 445-473.
    9. Kerry D. Vandell, 1992. "Predicting Commercial Mortgage Foreclosure Experience," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 55-88, March.
    10. Andreas D. Christopoulos & Robert A. Jarrow & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Commercial Mortgage‐Backed Securities (CMBS) and Market Efficiency with Respect to Costly Information," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 441-498, September.
    11. Ciochetti, Brian A. & Deng, Yongheng & Lee, Gail & Shilling, James D. & Yao, Rui, 2003. "A Proportional Hazards Model of Commercial Mortgage Default with Originator Bias," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-23, July.
    12. Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Estimating Default Probabilities of CMBS Loans with Clustering and Heavy Censoring," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 93-111, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gianluca Marcato & Giovanni Alberto Tira, 2009. "Driving Factors in Pricing European CMBS: Bond, Mortgage and Real Estate Characteristics," ERES eres2009_145, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    2. Christopoulos, Andreas D. & Jarrow, Robert A., 2018. "CMBS market efficiency: The crisis and the recovery," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 159-186.
    3. Christopoulos, Andreas D., 2017. "The composition of CMBS risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 215-239.
    4. Darren K. Hayunga & R. Kelley Pace & Shuang Zhu, 2019. "Borrower Risk and Housing Price Appreciation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 544-566, May.
    5. Samit Ahlawat, 2019. "Evaluation of Mortgage Default Characteristics Using Fannie Mae’s Loan Performance Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 589-616, November.
    6. Gróf, Gyula & Várgedő, Bálint & Sárvári, Balázs, 2024. "Az energiahatékonyság szerepe a jelzáloghitelek csődvalószínűségében és a tőkekövetelmények meghatározásában [The role of mortgage energy efficiency in the probability of default and in determining," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 653-670.
    7. Gang-Zhi Fan & Tien Sing & Seow Ong, 2012. "Default Clustering Risks in Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 110-127, June.
    8. Michele Leonardo Bianchi & Agostino Chiabrera, 2012. "Italian real estate investment funds: market structure and risk measurement," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 120, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Driessen, Joost & Van Hemert, Otto, 2012. "Pricing of commercial real estate securities during the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 37-61.

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    Keywords

    CMBS; Default; Structural model;
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