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Modeling Credit Risk with Partial Information

  • Umut Cetin
  • Robert Jarrow
  • Philip Protter
  • Yildiray Yildirim

This paper provides an alternative approach to Duffie and Lando [Econometrica 69 (2001) 633-664] for obtaining a reduced form credit risk model from a structural model. Duffie and Lando obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy where the market sees the manager's information set plus noise. The noise makes default a surprise to the market. In contrast, we obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy where the market sees a reduction of the manager's information set. The reduced information makes default a surprise to the market. We provide an explicit formula for the default intensity based on an Azema martingale, and we use excursion theory of Brownian motions to price risky debt.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/math/0407060
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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number math/0407060.

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Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Publication status: Published in Annals of Applied Probability 2004, Vol. 14, No. 3, 1167-1178
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:math/0407060
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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  1. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-64, May.
  2. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. " Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-25, July.
  3. Robert A. Jarrow, 2001. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1765-1799, October.
  4. Philip Protter & Michael Dritschel, 1999. "Complete markets with discontinuous security price," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 203-214.
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