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Modeling Credit Risk with Partial Information

Author

Listed:
  • Umut Cetin
  • Robert Jarrow
  • Philip Protter
  • Yildiray Yildirim

Abstract

This paper provides an alternative approach to Duffie and Lando [Econometrica 69 (2001) 633-664] for obtaining a reduced form credit risk model from a structural model. Duffie and Lando obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy where the market sees the manager's information set plus noise. The noise makes default a surprise to the market. In contrast, we obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy where the market sees a reduction of the manager's information set. The reduced information makes default a surprise to the market. We provide an explicit formula for the default intensity based on an Azema martingale, and we use excursion theory of Brownian motions to price risky debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Umut Cetin & Robert Jarrow & Philip Protter & Yildiray Yildirim, 2004. "Modeling Credit Risk with Partial Information," Papers math/0407060, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:math/0407060
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/math/0407060
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. " Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-625, July.
    2. Philip Protter & Michael Dritschel, 1999. "Complete markets with discontinuous security price," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 203-214.
    3. Robert A. Jarrow & Fan Yu, 2008. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 20, pages 481-515 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-664, May.
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    JEL classification:

    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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