A down-and-out exchange option model with jumps to evaluate firms' default probabilities in Brazil
We develop a tractable structural model to estimate a firm's default probability by modeling its asset and debt behavior. The model incorporates jump factors. For a set of Brazilian large corporations, we compare the structural model results to the default probabilities predicted by a survival analysis applied to the Central Bank debt information database. Our model outperforms other structural models. In a last step, we use a firm's sector failure probabilities to calibrate the model. This process is executed by adjusting the model jump volatility and it helps to explain the differences between debt and equity market failure probabilities.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2009. "Heterogeneity of sovereign rating migrations in emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.
- Reisz, Alexander S. & Perlich, Claudia, 2007. "A market-based framework for bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 85-131, July.
- Mark Mitchell & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Todd Pulvino, 2007.
"Slow Moving Capital,"
NBER Working Papers
12877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tudela, Merxe & Garry Young, 2003.
"A Merton Model Approach to Assessing the Default Risk of UK Public Companies,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003
207, Royal Economic Society.
- M. Tudela & G. Young, 2005. "A Merton-Model Approach To Assessing The Default Risk Of Uk Public Companies," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(06), pages 737-761.
- Merxe Tudela & Garry Young, 2003. "A Merton-model approach to assessing the default risk of UK public companies," Bank of England working papers 194, Bank of England.
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974.
"On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Jochen R. Andritzky & Geoffrey J Bannister & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2005.
"The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Emerging Market Bonds,"
IMF Working Papers
05/83, International Monetary Fund.
- Andritzky, Jochen R. & Bannister, Geoffrey J. & Tamirisa, Natalia T., 2007. "The impact of macroeconomic announcements on emerging market bonds," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 20-37, March.
- Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-664, May.
- Goldstein, Robert & Ju, Nengjiu & Leland, Hayne, 2001. "An EBIT-Based Model of Dynamic Capital Structure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(4), pages 483-512, October.
- In Joon Kim & Krishna Ramaswamy & Suresh Sundaresan, 1993. "Does Default Risk in Coupons Affect the Valuation of Corporate Bonds?: A Contingent Claims Model," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), pages -, Fall.
- Vonnegut, Andrew, 2000. "Real option theories and investment in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 82-100, May.
- Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
- Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 21-31.
- Hayne E. Leland, 1998.
"Agency Costs, Risk Management, and Capital Structure,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1213-1243, 08.
- Hayne E. Leland., 1998. "Agency Costs, Risk Management, and Capital Structure," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-278, University of California at Berkeley.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Schaefer, Stephen M. & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2008. "Structural models of credit risk are useful: Evidence from hedge ratios on corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-19, October.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Snorre Lindset, 2007. "Pricing American exchange options in a jump‐diffusion model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 257-273, 03.
- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
- Briys, Eric & de Varenne, François, 1997. "Valuing Risky Fixed Rate Debt: An Extension," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(02), pages 239-248, June.
- Beckers, Stan, 1981. "A Note on Estimating the Parameters of the Diffusion-Jump Model of Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 127-140, March.
- Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1929-1957, October.
- Sergei A. Davydenko & Julian R. Franks, 2008. "Do Bankruptcy Codes Matter? A Study of Defaults in France, Germany, and the U.K," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 565-608, 04.
- Ho, Thomas S. Y. & Singer, Ronald F., 1982. "Bond indenture provisions and the risk of corporate debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 375-406, December.
- Titman, Sheridan D & Torous, Walter N, 1989. " Valuing Commercial Mortgages: An Empirical Investigation of the Contingent-Claims Approach to Pricing Risky Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 345-373, June.
- Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. " Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-625, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:10:y:2009:i:3:p:179-190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.