IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reesec/v49y2021is2p490-525.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Commercial Mortgage‐Backed Security Pricing with Real Estate Liquidity Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Peimin Chen
  • Igor Kozhanov
  • Peng Liu
  • Chunchi Wu

Abstract

We propose a structural model with liquidity frictions at the property level for the pricing of commercial mortgages. The model shows that a moderate liquidity shock has a sizable effect on mortgage default risk. The sensitivities of default rates to volatility of property prices, cash payout and interest rates, all increase significantly as liquidity deteriorates. Empirical evidence strongly supports model predictions. The results suggest that failing to account for the effect of real estate illiquidity leads to substantial bias in estimation of default risk, the optimal subordination level and valuation of the structured products.

Suggested Citation

  • Peimin Chen & Igor Kozhanov & Peng Liu & Chunchi Wu, 2021. "Commercial Mortgage‐Backed Security Pricing with Real Estate Liquidity Risk," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S2), pages 490-525, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:49:y:2021:i:s2:p:490-525
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.12297
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12297
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1540-6229.12297?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    2. Darrell Duffie & Andreas Eckner & Guillaume Horel & Leandro Saita, 2009. "Frailty Correlated Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2089-2123, October.
    3. Jeffrey Fisher & Dean Gatzlaff & David Geltner & Donald Haurin, 2003. "Controlling for the Impact of Variable Liquidity in Commercial Real Estate Price Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 269-303, June.
    4. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Chunchi Wu & Peter F. Colwell, 1986. "Equilibrium of Housing and Real Estate Brokerage Markets Under Uncertainty," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-23, March.
    6. Brent W. Ambrose & Anthony B. Sanders & Abdullah Yavas, 2016. "Servicers and Mortgage-Backed Securities Default: Theory and Evidence," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 44(2), pages 462-489, April.
    7. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January.
    8. Sheridan Titman & Sergey Tsyplakov, 2010. "Originator Performance, CMBS Structures, and the Risk of Commercial Mortgages," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(9), pages 3558-3594.
    9. Pearson, Neil D & Sun, Tong-Sheng, 1994. "Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1279-1304, September.
    10. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    11. Driessen, Joost & Van Hemert, Otto, 2012. "Pricing of commercial real estate securities during the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 37-61.
    12. Andreas D. Christopoulos & Robert A. Jarrow & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Commercial Mortgage‐Backed Securities (CMBS) and Market Efficiency with Respect to Costly Information," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 441-498, September.
    13. Yinger, John, 1981. "A Search Model of Real Estate Broker Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 591-605, September.
    14. Childs, Paul D. & Ott, Steven H. & Riddiough, Timothy J., 1996. "The Pricing of Multiclass Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 581-603, December.
    15. An, Xudong & Deng, Yongheng & Gabriel, Stuart A., 2011. "Asymmetric information, adverse selection, and the pricing of CMBS," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 304-325, May.
    16. Liang Peng, 2016. "The Risk and Return of Commercial Real Estate: A Property Level Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 44(3), pages 555-583, July.
    17. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:2:p:345-73 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ashcraft, Adam B. & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 191-309, June.
    19. Lin, Hai & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2011. "Liquidity risk and expected corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 628-650, March.
    20. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Congjin Zhou & Guojing Wang & Yinghui Dong & Pin Wang, 2024. "The Valuation at Origination of Mortgages with Full Prepayment and Default Risks," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 1-26, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Günter Franke, 2013. "Known Unknowns in Verbriefungen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 65(67), pages 1-34, January.
    2. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2003. "Fixed-income pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1207-1246, Elsevier.
    3. Han, Lu & Strange, William C., 2015. "The Microstructure of Housing Markets," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 813-886, Elsevier.
    4. O. Samimi & Z. Mardani & S. Sharafpour & F. Mehrdoust, 2017. "LSM Algorithm for Pricing American Option Under Heston–Hull–White’s Stochastic Volatility Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 173-187, August.
    5. Augusto Castillo, 2004. "Firm and Corporate Bond Valuation: A Simulation Dynamic Programming Approach," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 41(124), pages 345-360.
    6. Xiao, Tim, 2018. "The Valuation of Credit Default Swap with Counterparty Risk and Collateralization," EconStor Preprints 203447, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Francis A. Longstaff, 2004. "Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," NBER Working Papers 10422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Chia-Chien Chang & Min-Teh Yu, 2017. "Valuing Vulnerable Mortgage Insurance Under Capital Forbearance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 558-578, May.
    9. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    10. Farshid Mehrdoust & Idin Noorani, 2019. "Pricing S&P500 barrier put option of American type under Heston–CIR model with regime-switching," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-17, June.
    11. Xiao,Tim, 2018. "Pricing Financial Derivatives Subject to Multilateral Credit Risk and Collateralization," EconStor Preprints 202075, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    12. Christopoulos, Andreas D., 2017. "The composition of CMBS risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 215-239.
    13. Werner Hürlimann, 2012. "Valuation of fixed and variable rate mortgages: binomial tree versus analytical approximations," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 35(2), pages 171-202, November.
    14. Oleksandr Zhylyevskyy, 2010. "A fast Fourier transform technique for pricing American options under stochastic volatility," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, April.
    15. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    16. White, Alan, 2018. "Pricing Credit Default Swap Subject to Counterparty Risk and Collateralization," MPRA Paper 85331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Konstantinos Konstantaras & Vasilios Sogiakas, 2019. "Is stock liquidity transferred and upgraded in acquisitions? Evidence from liquidity synergies in US freeze-outs," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 179-216, November.
    18. Chen, Ding & Härkönen, Hannu J. & Newton, David P., 2014. "Advancing the universality of quadrature methods to any underlying process for option pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 600-612.
    19. Ammann, Manuel & Kind, Axel & Wilde, Christian, 2008. "Simulation-based pricing of convertible bonds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 310-331, March.
    20. Maya Briani & Lucia Caramellino & Antonino Zanette, 2013. "A hybrid approach for the implementation of the Heston model," Papers 1307.7178, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:49:y:2021:i:s2:p:490-525. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/areueea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.