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Handing Over the Keys: A Perspective on Mortgage Default Research

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  • Kerry D. Vandell

Abstract

This paper is the text of the 1992 Presidential Address for the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association. A comparative evaluation of mortgage default research finds that both the residential and commercial markets evolved from informal underwriting rules, to formalized (though unvalidated) ratios and rules of thumb, to early risk ratings based upon empirical evidence, to gener‐alizable econometric models of default, to option‐based pricing models. The commercial market lagged the residential market by about 10 to 20 years at first but is now only about five years behind. The survey finds that research and progress in understanding mortgage credit risk has been precipitated by a public policy need or mandate, data availability, and adequate technology. The absence of any one of these factors has hindered progress in the past. Finally, six emerging issues in default research are identified and discussed: (1) the degree of “ruth‐lessness” with which default is exercised, (2) loan recourse, (3) the magnitude and timing of revenues and losses associated with default, (4) loan modification, (5) default in a portfolio context, and (6) leasehold default. Progress in these areas will enhance the efficiency of both the residential and commercial markets.

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  • Kerry D. Vandell, 1993. "Handing Over the Keys: A Perspective on Mortgage Default Research," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 211-246, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:21:y:1993:i:3:p:211-246
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00609
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    1. John P. Herzog & James S. Earley, 1970. "Home Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number herz70-1, May.
    2. Kerry D. Vandell & Walter Barnes & David Hartzell & Dennis Kraft & William Wendt, 1991. "Commercial Mortgage Defaults: Proportional Hazards Estimation Using Disaggregate Pooled Data," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 91-01, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
    3. Kerry D. Vandell & Walter Barnes & Eric T. Sondergeld, 1992. "A Contingent Claims Model of Commercial Mortgages Utilizing an Estimated Default Function," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 92-01, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chris Allen & Alistair Milne, 1994. "Mismatch in the Housing Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 31(9), pages 1451-1463, November.
    2. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2009. "Moral and Social Constraints to Strategic Default on Mortgages," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/27, European University Institute.
    3. Brown, Christopher L. & Simpson, W. Gary, 2003. "The cost of racially equal approval rates in mortgage lending," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 467-480.
    4. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2012. "Model Stability and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 545-568, October.
    5. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fang, Lu & Munneke, Henry J., 2021. "A spatial analysis of borrowers’ mortgage termination decision – A nonparametric approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Gao, M. & Yen, J. & Liu, M., 2021. "Determinants of defaults on P2P lending platforms in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 334-348.
    8. Tyler Yang & Che-Chun Lin & Man Cho, 2011. "Collateral Risk in Residential Mortgage Defaults," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 115-142, February.
    9. Lin, Che-Chun & Prather, Larry J. & Chu, Ting-Heng & Tsay, Jing-Tang, 2013. "Differential default risk among traditional and non-traditional mortgage products and capital adequacy standards," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 115-122.
    10. Seow Ong & Tien Sing & Alan Teo, 2007. "Delinquency and Default in Arms: The Effects of Protected Equity and Loss Aversion," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 253-280, October.
    11. Sumit Agarwal & Yongheng Deng & Jia He, 2020. "Time Preferences, Mortgage Choice and Mortgage Default," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 777-813.
    12. Hendershott, Patric H., 1996. "Introduction and overview," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 227-234, June.
    13. Childs, Paul D. & Ott, Steven H. & Riddiough, Timothy J., 1996. "The value of recourse and cross-default clauses in commercial mortgage contracting," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 511-536, April.
    14. David Feldman & Shulamith Gross, 2005. "Mortgage Default: Classification Trees Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 369-396, June.
    15. Sumit Agarwal & Yongheng Deng & Jia He, 2020. "Time Preferences, Mortgage Choice and Mortgage Default," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 151-187.
    16. Michael LaCour-Little, 2007. "Economic Factors Affecting Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Reporting," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(4), pages 479-510.
    17. Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William & Satchell, Stephen, 1997. "Time to default in the UK mortgage market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 485-499, October.
    18. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C., 2013. "Systemic risk and the refinancing ratchet effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 29-45.
    19. Patric H. Hendershott & Thomas G. Thibodeau & Halbert C. Smith, 2009. "Evolution of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association1," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 559-598, December.
    20. Paul Gallimore & Marvin Wolverton, 2000. "The objective in valuation: a study of the influence of client feedback," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 47-57, January.
    21. Marvin L. Wolverton & Paul Gallimore, 1999. "Client Feedback and the Role of the Appraiser," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(3), pages 415-432.
    22. Carlos Garriga & Lowell R. Ricketts & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2017. "The Homeownership Experience of Minorities During the Great Recession," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 99(1), pages 139-167.
    23. Eddie Lam, 2002. "A Risk Management Model for MBS Issuers," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 5(1), pages 169-195.
    24. Wayne Passmore & Roger Sparks, 1997. "The effect of automated underwriting on the profitability of mortgage securitization," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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