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Integrating the Empirical Tests of the Natural Rate Hypothesis: A Meta-Regression Analysis

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  • T. D. Stanley

Abstract

A meta-analysis of thirty-four restriction tests from nine studies of the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis (NRU) finds the statistical trace of a false empirical hypothesis. A theme of bias and misspecification among those studies that tend to be more supportive of NRU emerges. When combined with a separate meta-analysis of NRU's falsifying hypothesis, unemployment 'hysteresis' ( Stanley 2004a), the natural rate hypothesis may be regarded as empirically 'falsified' ( Popper 1959). Monte Carlo simulations validate the meta-regression methods used here to integrate different restriction tests and to identify their limitations. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd..

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  • T. D. Stanley, 2005. "Integrating the Empirical Tests of the Natural Rate Hypothesis: A Meta-Regression Analysis," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 611-634, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:58:y:2005:i:4:p:611-634
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    1. Spanos,Aris, 1986. "Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modelling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521269124, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stanley, T.D. & Doucouliagos, Chris & Jarrell, Stephen B., 2008. "Meta-regression analysis as the socio-economics of economics research," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 276-292, February.
    2. Germà Bel & Xavier Fageda, 2009. "Factors explaining local privatization: a meta-regression analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 105-119, April.
    3. Stephan B. Bruns, 2013. "Identifying Genuine Effects in Observational Research by Means of Meta-Regressions," Jena Economic Research Papers 2013-040, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    4. T.D. Stanley, 2013. "Does economics add up? An introduction to meta-regression analysis," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 207-220.
    5. Doucouliagos, Chris & Paldam, Martin & Stanley, T. D., 2018. "Skating on Thin Evidence: Implications for Public Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 11424, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
    7. Stephan B. Bruns, Christian Gross and David I. Stern, 2014. "Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    8. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
    9. Marc Lavoie & Eckhard Hein, 2015. "Going from a low to a high employment equilibrium," IMK Working Paper 144-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    10. Christophe Tavéra & Jean-Christophe Poutineau & Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Isabelle Cadoret & Arthur Charpentier, 2015. "The “mother of all puzzles” at thirty: A meta-analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 141, pages 80-96.
    11. Dany Lang & Mark Setterfield, 2012. "Faith-based Macroeconomics: A Critique of Recent Developments in NAIRU Estimation," Chapters,in: Employment, Growth and Development, chapter 5 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Matias Mednik & Cesar M. Rodriguez & Inder J. Ruprah, 2012. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 448-466, May.

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