Integrating the Empirical Tests of the Natural Rate Hypothesis: A Meta-Regression Analysis
A meta-analysis of thirty-four restriction tests from nine studies of the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis (NRU) finds the statistical trace of a false empirical hypothesis. A theme of bias and misspecification among those studies that tend to be more supportive of NRU emerges. When combined with a separate meta-analysis of NRU's falsifying hypothesis, unemployment 'hysteresis' ( Stanley 2004a), the natural rate hypothesis may be regarded as empirically 'falsified' ( Popper 1959). Monte Carlo simulations validate the meta-regression methods used here to integrate different restriction tests and to identify their limitations. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd..
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Volume (Year): 58 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
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