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Long‐term prediction intervals with many covariates

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  • Sayar Karmakar
  • Marek Chudý
  • Wei Biao Wu

Abstract

Accurate forecasting is one of the fundamental focuses in the literature of econometric time‐series. Often practitioners and policymakers want to predict outcomes of an entire time horizon in the future instead of just a single k‐step ahead prediction. These series, apart from their own possible nonlinear dependence, are often also influenced by many external predictors. In this article, we construct prediction intervals of time‐aggregated forecasts in a high‐dimensional regression setting. Our approach is based on quantiles of residuals obtained by the popular LASSO routine. We allow for general heavy‐tailed, long‐memory, and nonlinear stationary error processes and stochastic predictors. Through a series of systematically arranged consistency results, we provide theoretical guarantees of our proposed quantile‐based method in all of these scenarios. After validating our approach using simulations, we also propose a novel bootstrap‐based method that can boost the coverage of the theoretical intervals. Finally analyzing the EPEX Spot data, we construct prediction intervals for hourly electricity prices over horizons spanning 17 weeks and contrast them to selected Bayesian and bootstrap interval forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Sayar Karmakar & Marek Chudý & Wei Biao Wu, 2022. "Long‐term prediction intervals with many covariates," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 587-609, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:43:y:2022:i:4:p:587-609
    DOI: 10.1111/jtsa.12629
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    Cited by:

    1. Kejin Wu & Sayar Karmakar & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "GARCHX-NoVaS: A Model-free Approach to Incorporate Exogenous Variables," Papers 2308.13346, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    2. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "High Dimensional Time Series Regression Models: Applications to Statistical Learning Methods," Papers 2308.16192, arXiv.org.
    3. Paul Ghelasi & Florian Ziel, 2024. "From day-ahead to mid and long-term horizons with econometric electricity price forecasting models," Papers 2406.00326, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    4. Kejin Wu & Sayar Karmakar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Climate Risks and Stock Market Volatility Over a Century in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 202326, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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