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Subjective Economic Risk to Beneficiaries in Notional Defined Contribution Accounts

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  • Carlos Vidal‐Meliá
  • Inmaculada Domínguez‐Fabián
  • José Enrique Devesa‐Carpio

Abstract

This article aims to quantify the aggregate subjective economic risk to which beneficiaries would be exposed if a retirement pension system based on notional account philosophy were introduced. We use scenario generation techniques to make projections of the factors that determine the real expected internal rate of return (IRR) and the expected replacement rate (RR) for the beneficiary according to six retirement formulae based on the most widely accepted rates or indices. We then apply the model to the case of Spain. Our projections are based on Herce and Alonso's macroeconomic scenario 2000–2050 (2000) and include information about the past performance of the indices and the time period the forecast is to cover. The results of the IRR calculation—average value, standard deviation, and value‐at‐risk (VaR)—are analyzed both in objective terms and for different degrees of participants' risk aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Vidal‐Meliá & Inmaculada Domínguez‐Fabián & José Enrique Devesa‐Carpio, 2006. "Subjective Economic Risk to Beneficiaries in Notional Defined Contribution Accounts," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 489-515, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:73:y:2006:i:3:p:489-515
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6975.2006.00185.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Tumbarello, Patrizia & Palacios, Robert, 1999. "Pension systems in the Middle East and North Africa: A window of opportunity," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 99-44, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    2. Javier Alonso Meseguer & José A. Herce, "undated". "Balance del sistema de pensiones y boom migratorio en España. Proyecciones del modelo MODPENS de FEDEA a 2050," Working Papers 2003-02, FEDEA.
    3. Schwarz, Anita M. & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1999. "Taking stock of pension reforms around the world," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 20533, The World Bank.
    4. Robert Holzmann & Mitchell Orenstein & Michal Rutkowski, 2003. "Pension Reform in Europe : Process and Progress," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15132.
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    1. Alonso-García, J. & Devolder, P., 2016. "Optimal mix between pay-as-you-go and funding for DC pension schemes in an overlapping generations model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 224-236.
    2. José Enrique Devesa Carpio & Mar Devesa Carpio & Robert Meney Gaya & Amparo Nagore García & Inmaculada Domínguez Fabián & Borja Encinas Goenechea, 2012. "Equidad y sostenibilidad como objetivos ante la reforma del sistema contributivo de pensiones de jubilación," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 201(2), pages 9-38, June.
    3. Carlos Vidal-Meliá & Inmaculada Domínguez-Fabián & María del Carmen Boado-Penas, "undated". "Notional Defined Contribution Accounts (NDCs): Solvency and Risk; Application to the Case of Spain," Studies on the Spanish Economy 226, FEDEA.
    4. Anne M. Garvey & Juan Manuel Pérez-Salamero González & Manuel Ventura-Marco & Carlos Vidal-Meliá, 2021. "From “Table 29” to the actuarial balance sheet: is it really that big a leap?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2021-05, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.

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