IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jregsc/v47y2007i2p229-253.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investment Risk And The Transition Into Homeownership

Author

Listed:
  • Tracy M. Turner
  • Daigyo Seo

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> ABSTRACT This paper investigates the extent to which house–price uncertainty affects the transition of renter households into homeownership. Using a 14-year household panel from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics during the years 1984–1997 and measures of the time-varying risk and return to owner-occupied housing, we estimate a Cox proportional hazard model of the effect of house–price volatility on the transition into homeownership. Results indicate that house–price uncertainty has a negative and dramatic impact on transitions into homeownership. In addition, we find that the low-wealth renters are particularly sensitive to house–price risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Tracy M. Turner & Daigyo Seo, 2007. "Investment Risk And The Transition Into Homeownership," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 229-253, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:47:y:2007:i:2:p:229-253
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2007.00507.x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Case, Karl E. & Mayer, Christopher J., 1996. "Housing price dynamics within a metropolitan area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 387-407, June.
    2. Hilber, Christian A.L., 2005. "Neighborhood externality risk and the homeownership status of properties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 213-241, March.
    3. Ranney, Susan I, 1981. "The Future Price of Houses, Mortgage Market Conditions, and the Returns to Homeownership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 323-333, June.
    4. Chan, Sewin, 2001. "Spatial Lock-in: Do Falling House Prices Constrain Residential Mobility?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 567-586, May.
    5. Bostic, Raphael W & Surette, Brian J, 2001. "Have the Doors Opened Wider? Trends in Homeownership Rates by Race and Income," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 411-434, November.
    6. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 45-56.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
    9. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    10. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 535-567.
    11. Henderson, J Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M, 1983. "A Model of Housing Tenure Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 98-113, March.
    12. Fu, Yuming, 1991. "A Model of Housing Tenure Choice: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 381-383, March.
    13. Englund, Peter & Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M, 2002. "Hedging Housing Risk," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 167-200, Jan.-Marc.
    14. Engelhardt, Gary V., 2003. "Nominal loss aversion, housing equity constraints, and household mobility: evidence from the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 171-195, January.
    15. Patric H. Hendershott & Joel Slemrod, 1982. "Taxes and the User Cost of Capital for Owner‐Occupied Housing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 10(4), pages 375-393, December.
    16. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    17. Rosen, Harvey S & Rosen, Kenneth T & Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1984. "Housing Tenure, Uncertainty, and Taxation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 405-416, August.
    18. Hu, Xiaoqing, 2005. "Portfolio choices for homeowners," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 114-136, July.
    19. Gatzlaff, Dean H & Haurin, Donald R, 1997. "Sample Selection Bias and Repeat-Sales Index Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 33-50, Jan.-Marc.
    20. Tracy M. Turner, 2003. "Does Investment Risk Affect the Housing Decisions of Families?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 675-691, October.
    21. Todd Sinai, 1997. "Taxation, User Cost, and Household Mobility Decisions," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 303, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
    22. Dynarski, Mark R & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1985. "Housing Purchases and Transitory Income: A Study with Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 195-204, May.
    23. Sewin Chan & Henry Schneider & Joseph Tracy, 1999. "Are stocks overtaking real estate in household portfolios?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Apr).
    24. Fu, Yuming, 1995. "Uncertainty, liquidity, and housing choices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 223-236, April.
    25. Brueckner, Jan K, 1997. "Consumption and Investment Motives and the Portfolio Choices of Homeowners," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 159-180, October.
    26. Jesse M. Abraham & William S. Schauman, 1991. "New Evidence on Home Prices from Freddie Mac Repeat Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 333-352, September.
    27. Goodman, Allen C. & Kawai, Masahiro, 1982. "Permanent income, hedonic prices, and demand for housing: New evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 214-237, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ha, Sejeong & Hilber, Christian A.L. & Schöni, Olivier, 2021. "Do long-distance moves discourage homeownership? Evidence from England," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Dongshin Kim & Youngme Seo & Julia Freybote, 2021. "Urbanity, Financial Crisis and the Timing of Homebuying Decisions by Young Households," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 481-507, May.
    3. Heather M. Luea, 2008. "The Impact Of Financial Help And Gifts On Housing Demand And Cost Burdens," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(3), pages 420-432, July.
    4. Tracy M. Turner & Marc T. Smith, 2009. "Exits From Homeownership: The Effects Of Race, Ethnicity, And Income," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 1-32, February.
    5. Adam Eckerd & Andrew Keeler, 2012. "Going green together? Brownfield remediation and environmental justice," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 45(4), pages 293-314, December.
    6. Turner, Tracy M. & Luea, Heather, 2009. "Homeownership, wealth accumulation and income status," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 104-114, June.
    7. Mavropoulos, Antonios & Xiong, Qizhou, 2019. "Housing consumption and macroprudential policies in Europe: An ex ante evaluation," IWH Discussion Papers 17/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2019.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tracy M. Turner & Marc T. Smith, 2009. "Exits From Homeownership: The Effects Of Race, Ethnicity, And Income," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 1-32, February.
    2. Dietz, Robert D. & Haurin, Donald R., 2003. "The social and private micro-level consequences of homeownership," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 401-450, November.
    3. Fan, Gang-Zhi & Pu, Ming & Deng, Xiaoying & Ong, Seow Eng, 2018. "Optimal portfolio choices and the determination of housing rents under housing market uncertainty," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 200-217.
    4. Jan Rouwendal, 2009. "Housing Wealth and Household Portfolios in an Ageing Society," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 1-48, March.
    5. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 763-789.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2009_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hilber, Christian A.L., 2005. "Neighborhood externality risk and the homeownership status of properties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 213-241, March.
    8. Ha, Sejeong & Hilber, Christian A.L. & Schöni, Olivier, 2021. "Do long-distance moves discourage homeownership? Evidence from England," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    9. Steven Sheffrin & Tracy Turner, 2001. "Taxation and House-Price Uncertainty: Some Empirical Estimates," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 8(4), pages 621-636, August.
    10. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 2002. "Tenure choice and the riskiness of non-housing consumption," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 266-279, September.
    11. Haavio, Markus & Kauppi, Heikki, 2009. "House price fluctuations and residential sorting," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2009, Bank of Finland.
    12. Haavio, Markus & Kauppi, Heikki, 2009. "House price fluctuations and residential sorting," Research Discussion Papers 14/2009, Bank of Finland.
    13. John P. Harding & Jing Li & Stuart S. Rosenthal & Xirui Zhang, 2022. "Forced moves and home maintenance: The amplifying effects of mortgage payment burden on underwater homeowners," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 498-533, June.
    14. Christian A. L. Hilber & Tracy M. Turner, 2014. "The Mortgage Interest Deduction and its Impact on Homeownership Decisions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 618-637, October.
    15. Eli Beracha & Alexandre Skiba & Ken H Johnson, 2017. "Housing Ownership Decision Making in the Framework of Household Portfolio Choice," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 39(2), pages 263-288.
    16. Quigley, John M., 2002. "Transactions Costs and Housing Markets," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt6pz8p6zt, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    17. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Dennett, Julia, 2013. "Are American homeowners locked into their houses? The impact of housing market conditions on state-to-state migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 322-337.
    18. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
    19. François Ortalo-Magné & Andrea Prat, 2016. "Spatial Asset Pricing: A First Step," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(329), pages 130-171, January.
    20. Hilber, Christian A.L. & Liu, Yingchun, 2008. "Explaining the black-white homeownership gap: The role of own wealth, parental externalities and locational preferences," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 152-174, June.
    21. Philippe Bracke & Christian Hilber & Olmo Silva, 2012. "Homeownerhip and Entrepreneurship," SERC Discussion Papers 0103, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:47:y:2007:i:2:p:229-253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-4146 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.