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Modelling political popularity: a correction

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  • David Byers
  • James Davidson
  • David Peel

Abstract

Summary. The paper supplies a missing step in the aggregation argument that was used in our 1997 paper in this journal. We show that monthly poll data representing the average of a sample of voter preferences, evolving in different ways in the face of new information, should follow a fractionally integrated process.

Suggested Citation

  • David Byers & James Davidson & David Peel, 2002. "Modelling political popularity: a correction," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 165(1), pages 187-189, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:165:y:2002:i:1:p:187-189
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-985X.00677
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eisinga, Rob & Franses, Philip Hans & Ooms, Marius, 1999. "Forecasting long memory left-right political orientations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-199, April.
    2. John Byers & David Peel & Dennis Thomas, 2007. "Habit, aggregation and long memory: evidence from television audience data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 321-327.
    3. Davidson, James & Hashimzade, Nigar, 2009. "Type I and type II fractional Brownian motions: A reconsideration," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2089-2106, April.
    4. David Byers & James Davidson & David Peel, 2007. "The long memory model of political support: some further results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2547-2552.
    5. Davidson, James & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2005. "Generating schemes for long memory processes: regimes, aggregation and linearity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 253-282, October.
    6. Davidson, James & Terasvirta, Timo, 2002. "Long memory and nonlinear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 105-112, October.
    7. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Sergei S. Shibaev, 2015. "Forecasting daily political opinion polls using the fractionally cointegrated VAR model," Working Paper 1340, Economics Department, Queen's University.

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