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Macroeconomic News And Stock Market Calendar And Weather Anomalies

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  • Jeffrey R. Gerlach

Abstract

An analysis of six stock market calendar and weather anomalies from 1980 to 2003 shows that (1) returns on trading days in which macroeconomic announcements were made generate the anomalies and (2) five of the six anomalies are not present at all on the trading days in which such announcements were not made (more than 60% of the sample). The results suggest that the market response to macroeconomic news, not psychological or institutional factors, is the main source of calendar and weather anomalies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2007. "Macroeconomic News And Stock Market Calendar And Weather Anomalies," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 283-300, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:30:y:2007:i:2:p:283-300
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6803.2007.00214.x
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    1. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 28 Jun 2004.
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    1. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan & Nistor, Costel, 2011. "The US macroeconomic news announcements and the within-month effects on the Bucharest Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 41626, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Oct 2011.
    2. Lepori, Gabriele M., 2015. "Investor mood and demand for stocks: Evidence from popular TV series finales," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 33-47.
    3. Easterday, Kathryn E. & Sen, Pradyot K., 2016. "Is the January effect rational? Insights from the accounting valuation model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 168-185.
    4. Tomasz Schabek & Henrique Castro, 2017. "“Sell not only in May”. Seasonal Effects on Stock Markets," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17, pages 5-18.
    5. Frühwirth, Manfred & Sögner, Leopold, 2015. "Weather and SAD related mood effects on the financial market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 11-31.
    6. Uluyol, Burhan & Hui Pu, Suan & Shaturaev, Jakhongir & Kanaparan, Geetha, 2023. "Cracking the Code of Market Secrets: A Deep Dive into Financial Anomalies," MPRA Paper 119039, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Oct 2023.
    7. Brian L. Dos Santos & Zhiqiang (Eric) Zheng & Vijay S. Mookerjee & Hongyu Chen, 2012. "Are New IT-Enabled Investment Opportunities Diminishing for Firms?," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 287-305, June.
    8. Zaremba, Adam & Schabek, Tomasz, 2017. "Seasonality in government bond returns and factor premia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 292-302.
    9. Razvan Stefanescu & Ramona Dumitriu, 2023. "The Extended January Effect on London Stock Exchange," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 104-114.
    10. Stefanescu Razvan & Dumitriu Ramona, 2020. "Changes of the Time Intervals Specific to Calendar Anomalies: the Case of TOQ Effect on Bucharest Stock Exchange," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 264-273.
    11. Khushboo Aggarwal & Mithilesh Kumar Jha, 2023. "Stock returns seasonality in emerging asian markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 109-130, March.
    12. Jalonen, Einari & Vähämaa, Sami & Äijö, Janne, 2010. "Turn-of-the-month and intramonth effects in government bond markets: Is there a role for macroeconomic news?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 75-81, January.
    13. Fouzia Alloul & El Mehdi Ferrouhi, 2025. "Effect of Weather on Sectoral Stock Indices Returns and Volatilities: Evidence from the Moroccan Stock Market," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 17(3), pages 431-452, September.
    14. Guven, Cahit & Hoxha, Indrit, 2015. "Rain or shine: Happiness and risk-taking," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-10.
    15. Ramona Dumitriu & Razvan Stefanescu, 2025. "The Returns of Magnificent Seven Stocks in the First Days of Purchase Transactions Associated to the Halloween Strategies," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 183-187.
    16. Michael Weigerding & Michael Hanke, 2018. "Drivers of seasonal return patterns in German stocks," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 11(1), pages 173-196, February.
    17. Dumitriu Ramona & Stefanescu Razvan, 2021. "TOQ Effects on the Romanian Foreign Exchange Market," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 246-253.
    18. Wei-han Liu, 2019. "National culture effects on stock market volatility level," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1229-1253, October.
    19. Díaz, Antonio & Jareño, Francisco, 2009. "Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-368, September.
    20. Silva, Pedro & Almeida, Liliana, 2011. "Weather and stock markets: empirical evidence from Portugal," MPRA Paper 54119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Razvan Stefanescu & Ramona Dumitriu, 2025. "The Returns of US Capital Market in the First Days of Purchase Transactions Associated to the Halloween Strategies," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 265-272.
    22. Zhang, Cherry Y. & Jacobsen, Ben, 2021. "The Halloween indicator, “Sell in May and Go Away”: Everywhere and all the time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    23. Aurora MURGEA, 2016. "Mercury retrograde effect in capital markets: truth or illusion?," Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 9(1), pages 49-61, June.

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