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Weather and stock markets: empirical evidence from Portugal

Listed author(s):
  • Silva, Pedro
  • Almeida, Liliana

Multiple psychological studies support a relationship between weather and the mood of individuals. Furthermore, mood seems to influence the decision making process of individuals namely when those decisions are risky. Therefore, weather may have an indirect impact on market returns. We review the current evidence and investigate the relationship between four weather variables (Rain, Temperature, Sunshine and Wind speed) and the returns of a Portuguese stock market index between January 2000 and December 2009. In this research, based on “bin tests” and regression analysis, we detect the influence of temperature, especially, low temperatures, on the stock market (low temperatures being associated with higher returns) but we cannot rule out the possibility that weather effects are being confounded with simpler calendar patterns.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/54119/1/MPRA_paper_54119.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 54119.

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Date of creation: Dec 2011
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54119
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  1. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, 06.
  2. Anya Krivelyova & Cesare Robotti, 2003. "Playing the field: Geomagnetic storms and international stock markets," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. Hui-Chu Shu & Mao-Wei Hung, 2009. "Effect of wind on stock market returns: evidence from European markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 893-904.
  4. Chang, Tsangyao & Nieh, Chien-Chung & Yang, Ming Jing & Yang, Tse-Yu, 2006. "Are stock market returns related to the weather effects? Empirical evidence from Taiwan," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 364(C), pages 343-354.
  5. Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2007. "Macroeconomic News And Stock Market Calendar And Weather Anomalies," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 283-300.
  6. Chang, Shao-Chi & Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chou, Robin K. & Lin, Yueh-Hsiang, 2008. "Weather and intraday patterns in stock returns and trading activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1754-1766, September.
  7. Stephen Keef & Melvin Roush, 2007. "Daily weather effects on the returns of Australian stock indices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 173-184.
  8. Helga Fehr & Thomas Epper & Adrian Bruhin & Renate Schubert, 2007. "Risk and Rationality: The Effect of Incidental Mood on Probability Weighting," SOI - Working Papers 0703, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  9. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-1345, December.
  10. Kramer, Walter & Runde, Ralf, 1997. "Stocks and the Weather: An Exercise in Data Mining or Yet Another Capital Market Anomaly?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 637-641.
  11. Levy, Ori & Galili, Itai, 2008. "Stock purchase and the weather: Individual differences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 755-767, September.
  12. Loughran, Tim & Schultz, Paul, 2004. "Weather, Stock Returns, and the Impact of Localized Trading Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(02), pages 343-364, June.
  13. Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2008. "Robust global mood influences in equity pricing," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 145-164, April.
  14. Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2005. "Weather, biorhythms, beliefs and stock returns--Some preliminary Irish evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 337-355.
  15. Jacobsen, Ben & Marquering, Wessel, 2008. "Is it the weather?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 526-540, April.
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