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Risk Taking By Thrift Institutions: A Framework For Empirical Investigation

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  • DEVRA L. GOLBE
  • BERNARD SHULL

Abstract

The discussion surrounding the recent reregulation of the thrift industry suggests that (i) thrifts engaging in “risky” activities are more likely to become insolvent and that (ii) thrifts already near insolvency are likely to take on more risks resulting in increased loss. This paper considers the relationship between insolvency and risk taking in a simultaneous framework and uses 1978–1983 data for Illinois thrifts to investigate the relationship. The paper explores the likelihood that risk taking by thrifts increases as the probability of insolvency increases, that risk taking increases as the probability of failure (i.e., closure by the regulator) increases, and that the probability of insolvency increases as risk taking increases. Preliminary empirical results suggest that an increase in the probability of insolvency increases risk taking and that an increase in risk taking increases the likelihood of insolvency. This latter result is (statistically) significant only when one measures risk by an index of diversification. If sustained in more extensive testing, this result implies that regulatory restrictions on asset diversification are counterproductive.

Suggested Citation

  • Devra L. Golbe & Bernard Shull, 1991. "Risk Taking By Thrift Institutions: A Framework For Empirical Investigation," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 9(3), pages 106-115, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:9:y:1991:i:3:p:106-115
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7287.1991.tb00346.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kareken, John H & Wallace, Neil, 1978. "Deposit Insurance and Bank Regulation: A Partial-Equilibrium Exposition," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 413-438, July.
    2. James R. Barth & R. Dan Brumbaugh, Jr. & Daniel Sauerhaft & George H. K. Wang, 1985. "Insolvency And Risk‐Taking In The Thrift Industry: Implications For The Future," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 3(5), pages 1-32, September.
    3. Devra L. Golbe, 1981. "The Effects of Imminent Bankruptcy on Stockholder Risk Preferences and Behavior," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(1), pages 321-328, Spring.
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1978. "On the Cost of Deposit Insurance When There Are Surveillance Costs," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 439-452, July.
    5. W. F. Sharpe, 1981. "Bank Capital Adequacy, Deposit Insurance, and Security Values," NBER Chapters, in: Risk and Capital Adequacy in Commercial Banks, pages 187-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Golbe, Devra L., 1988. "Risk-taking by firms near bankruptcy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 75-79.
    7. Hannan, Timothy H & Hanweck, Gerald A, 1988. "Bank Insolvency Risk and the Market for Large Certificates of Deposit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 203-211, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    2. BERNARD Shull, 1993. "How Should Bank Regulatory Agencies Be Organized?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(1), pages 99-107, January.

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