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The Diffusion of Greenhouse Agriculture in Northern Thailand: Combining Econometrics and Agent-Based Modeling

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  • Pepijn Schreinemachers
  • Thomas Berger
  • Aer Sirijinda
  • Suwanna Praneetvatakul

Abstract

"This paper studies the diffusion of greenhouse agriculture in a watershed in the northern uplands of Thailand by applying econometrics and agent-based modeling in combination. Adoption has been rapid by farmers in the central valley of the watershed, while farmers at higher altitudes, lacking transferable land titles that could serve as mortgage collateral, have been unable to obtain loans for greenhouse investment. The objectives of the paper are both methodological and empirical. On the methodological side, it shows that econometrically estimated models of farm household behavior are useful to design and to parameterize an agent-based model. On the empirical side, simulation results show that if mortgage collateral would not be required, then adoption in the upper part of the watershed could reach nearly 77% of farm households by 2020, as compared to about 36% under current conditions. Furthermore results suggest a significant increase in incomes related to the innovation and a substantially greater irrigation water use, especially in the central part. As bell pepper under greenhouses has replaced pesticide-intensive chrysanthemum, it has declined average levels of pesticide use. Nevertheless, pesticide use is high and farmers are struggling to control pests, which raises questions about the long-term sustainability of the innovation." Copyright (c) 2009 Canadian Agricultural Economics Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Pepijn Schreinemachers & Thomas Berger & Aer Sirijinda & Suwanna Praneetvatakul, 2009. "The Diffusion of Greenhouse Agriculture in Northern Thailand: Combining Econometrics and Agent-Based Modeling," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(4), pages 513-536, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:57:y:2009:i:4:p:513-536
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McCarl, Bruce A. & Apland, Jeffrey, 1986. "Validation Of Linear Programming Models," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(02), December.
    2. Prasnee Tipraqsa & Pepijn Schreinemachers, 2009. "Agricultural commercialization of Karen Hill tribes in northern Thailand," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 43-53, January.
    3. Balmann, Alfons, 1997. "Farm-Based Modelling of Regional Structural Change: A Cellular Automata Approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 85-108.
    4. Letcher, R.A. & Croke, B.F.W. & Merritt, W.S. & Jakeman, A.J., 2006. "An integrated modelling toolbox for water resources assessment and management in highland catchments: Sensitivity analysis and testing," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 132-164, July.
    5. Berger, Thomas, 2001. "Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture: a simulation tool for technology diffusion, resource use changes and policy analysis," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 25(2-3), September.
    6. Schreinemachers, Pepijn & Berger, Thomas & Aune, Jens B., 2007. "Simulating soil fertility and poverty dynamics in Uganda: A bio-economic multi-agent systems approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 387-401, December.
    7. Thomas Berger & Regina Birner & Nancy Mccarthy & JosÉ DíAz & Heidi Wittmer, 2007. "Capturing the complexity of water uses and water users within a multi-agent framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(1), pages 129-148, January.
    8. Berger, Thomas, 2001. "Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture: a simulation tool for technology diffusion, resource use changes and policy analysis," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(2-3), pages 245-260, September.
    9. Janssen, Sander & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2007. "Assessing farm innovations and responses to policies: A review of bio-economic farm models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 622-636, June.
    10. Berger, Thomas & Schreinemachers, Pepijn & Woelcke, Johannes, 2006. "Multi-agent simulation for the targeting of development policies in less-favored areas," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 28-43, April.
    11. Letcher, R.A. & Croke, B.F.W. & Jakeman, A.J. & Merritt, W.S., 2006. "An integrated modelling toolbox for water resources assessment and management in highland catchments: Model description," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 106-131, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Laura Schmitt Olabisi & Ryan Qi Wang & Arika Ligmann-Zielinska, 2015. "Why Don’t More Farmers Go Organic? Using A Stakeholder-Informed Exploratory Agent-Based Model to Represent the Dynamics of Farming Practices in the Philippines," Land, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(4), pages 1-24, October.
    2. Grovermann, Christian & Schreinemachers, Pepijn & Riwthong, Suthathip & Berger, Thomas, 2017. "‘Smart’ policies to reduce pesticide use and avoid income trade-offs: An agent-based model applied to Thai agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 91-103.
    3. Tesfamicheal Wossen & Thomas Berger & Salvatore Di Falco, 2015. "Social capital, risk preference and adoption of improved farm land management practices in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(1), pages 81-97, January.
    4. repec:eee:ecomod:v:363:y:2017:i:c:p:31-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Grovermann, Christian & Schreinemachers, Pepijn & Berger, Thomas, 2015. "Evaluation of IPM adoption and financial instruments to reduce pesticide use in Thai agriculture using econometrics and agent-based modeling," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211690, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Quang, Dang Viet & Schreinemachers, Pepijn & Berger, Thomas, 2014. "Ex-ante assessment of soil conservation methods in the uplands of Vietnam: An agent-based modeling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 108-119.
    7. James Nolan & Dawn Parker & G. Cornelis van Kooten & Thomas Berger, 2009. "An Overview of Computational Modeling in Agricultural and Resource Economics," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(4), pages 417-429, December.
    8. repec:bla:agecon:v:48:y:2017:i:6:p:693-706 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Rianne Duinen & Tatiana Filatova & Wander Jager & Anne Veen, 2016. "Going beyond perfect rationality: drought risk, economic choices and the influence of social networks," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 57(2), pages 335-369, November.

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