IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/buecrs/v73y2021i4p688-703.html

Risk perception with imperfect information and social interactions: Understanding group polarization

Author

Listed:
  • Jacques Pelletan

Abstract

This article examines the group polarization process when agents are faced with a risk for which the probability of occurrence is not perfectly known. First, we show information destruction through an informational cascade phenomenon. Then, we analyze how this inefficiency is amplified if individuals with the same type of risk‐related behavior group together. Two extensions are detailed: consideration of the possibility that individual agents participate in more than one group, and introduction of agents highly confident in their own information, enabling cascades to be "broken." Under conditions, the behavior of these agents, costly at the individual level, is collectively efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Pelletan, 2021. "Risk perception with imperfect information and social interactions: Understanding group polarization," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 688-703, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:73:y:2021:i:4:p:688-703
    DOI: 10.1111/boer.12272
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12272
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/boer.12272?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clifford W. Scherer & Hichang Cho, 2003. "A Social Network Contagion Theory of Risk Perception," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 261-267, April.
    2. S. Hun Seog, 2008. "Informational Cascade in the Insurance Market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 145-165, March.
    3. Becker, Gary S, 1991. "A Note on Restaurant Pricing and Other Examples of Social Influences on Price," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 1109-1116, October.
    4. Louise Allsopp & John D. Hey, 2000. "Two Experiments to Test a Model of Herd Behaviour," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 3(2), pages 121-136, October.
    5. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 1998. "Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 151-170, Summer.
    6. Andrea Morone & Eleni Samanidou, 2008. "A simple note on herd behaviour," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 639-646, October.
      • Andrea Morone & Eleni Samanidou, 2007. "A simple note on Herd Behaviour," SERIES 0013, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Feb 2007.
    7. Fiore, Annamaria & Morone, Andrea, 2008. "A Simple Note on Informational Cascades," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2, pages 1-21.
    8. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
    9. Morone, Andrea, 2012. "A simple model of herd behavior, a comment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 208-211.
    10. Hakes, Jahn K & Viscusi, W Kip, 1997. "Mortality Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Reassessment," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 135-150, November.
    11. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giovanni Ferri & Andrea Morone, 2014. "The effect of rating agencies on herd behaviour," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 9(1), pages 107-127, April.
    2. Morone, Andrea & Nuzzo, Simone, 2015. "Market Efficiency, Trading Institutions and Information Mirages: evidence from an experimental asset market," MPRA Paper 67448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Morone, Andrea & Nuzzo, Simone, 2016. "Do markets (institutions) drive out lemmings - or vice versa?," Kiel Working Papers 2061, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    4. Morone, Andrea & Sandri, Serena & Fiore, Annamaria, 2009. "On the absorbability of informational cascades in the laboratory," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 728-738, October.
    5. Andrea Morone & Simone Nuzzo, 2019. "Market efficiency, trading institutions and information mirages: evidence from a laboratory asset market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(2), pages 317-344, June.
    6. Fishman, Arthur & Fishman, Ram & Gneezy, Uri, 2019. "A tale of two food stands: Observational learning in the field," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 101-108.
    7. Feri, Francesco & Meléndez-Jiménez, Miguel A. & Ponti, Giovanni & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2011. "Error cascades in observational learning: An experiment on the Chinos game," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 136-146, September.
    8. Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
    9. Roe, Brian E. & Teisl, Mario F., 2004. "Consumption Externalities, Information Policies, And Multiple Equilibria: Evidence For Genetically Engineered Food Markets," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20243, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Michael McAleer & Kim Radalj, 2013. "Herding, Information Cascades and Volatility Spillovers in Futures Markets," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 2, pages 307-329.
    11. Oz Shy, 2011. "A Short Survey of Network Economics," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 38(2), pages 119-149, March.
    12. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
    13. Ali-Rind, Asad & Boubaker, Sabri & Jarjir, Souad Lajili, 2023. "Peer effects in financial economics: A literature survey," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Insler, Michael & Rahman, Ahmed S. & Smith, Katherine, 2021. "Tracking the Herd with a Shotgun — Why Do Peers Influence College Major Selection?," IZA Discussion Papers 14412, IZA Network @ LISER.
    15. Wei He & Qian Wang, 2020. "The peer effect of corporate financial decisions around split share structure reform in China," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 474-493, July.
    16. Jacob K. Goeree & Leeat Yariv, 2015. "Conformity in the lab," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 1(1), pages 15-28, July.
    17. Daichi SHIMAMOTO & Yu Ri KIM & Yasuyuki TODO, 2019. "The Effect of Social Interactions on Exporting Activities: Evidence from Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises in rural Vietnam," Discussion papers 19020, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Wang, Peiwen & Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Yan, Yuanyun, 2023. "Do peer effects matter in bank risk? Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. Hien Tran & Enrico Santarelli & Enrico Zaninotto, 2015. "Efficiency or bounded rationality? Drivers of firm diversification strategies in Vietnam," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 983-1010, November.
    20. Davide Crapis & Bar Ifrach & Costis Maglaras & Marco Scarsini, 2017. "Monopoly Pricing in the Presence of Social Learning," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3586-3608, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:73:y:2021:i:4:p:688-703. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0307-3378 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.