Unintended Effects of Water‐Saving Policy: Irrigated Corn Expansion in Türkiye

Agriculture consumes 70% of global water resources, worsening a crisis where billions lack clean water. Governments seek innovative solutions to water scarcity. In late 2016, Türkiye implemented a policy designed to reduce agricultural water consumption by promoting water‐efficient crops (lentils and chickpeas) and requiring drip irrigation for corn farmers. Despite these incentives, our analysis shows that the policy had an unintended and counterproductive effect: It led to a significant expansion of irrigated corn cultivation in the targeted regions. Our study demonstrates that this outcome was driven by farmers responding to rational economic signals, as the enhanced support for water‐efficient crops was insufficient to overcome the superior profitability of corn. This finding demonstrates that water‐saving policies can backfire if they fail to account for the underlying economic drivers of crop choice, highlighting the critical need for careful incentive design.