IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/1734.html

Employment Shocks, Emergency Social Protection, and Food Security during COVID-19 in South Africa: Causal Evidence and Policy Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Dikgang, Johane
  • Magambo, Isaiah
  • Bachu, Kiana
  • Kimani, Mumbi

Abstract

This study assesses how pandemic-related job losses and social protection impacted food security in South Africa using five waves of data from the NIDS-CRAM survey of 794 individuals. Job loss increased food insecurity by 5.2% (14%), consistent across five methods and lasting for 12 months. COVID-19 grants, including the R350/month Social Relief of Distress grant, reduced food insecurity by 3.8% (10%). The link between employment and food security extends beyond income loss: job loss increased income decline by 8.7%, accounting for less than a third of the total food security effect. Grants mainly worked through non-income benefits, such as psychological support, better food planning, and logistics. The effects were larger for low-income, less-educated households, and families with children. Recommendations include increasing grant levels to 30-40% of median wages, extending the duration, reducing delays, and linking grants with employment services.

Suggested Citation

  • Dikgang, Johane & Magambo, Isaiah & Bachu, Kiana & Kimani, Mumbi, 2026. "Employment Shocks, Emergency Social Protection, and Food Security during COVID-19 in South Africa: Causal Evidence and Policy Implications," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1734, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:1734
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/339717/1/GLO-DP-1734.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 69-85, Fall.
    2. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    3. Eyal, Katherine & Burns, Justine, 2019. "The parent trap: Cash transfers and the intergenerational transmission of depressive symptoms in South Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 211-229.
    4. Hidrobo, Melissa & Hoddinott, John & Peterman, Amber & Margolies, Amy & Moreira, Vanessa, 2014. "Cash, food, or vouchers? Evidence from a randomized experiment in northern Ecuador," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 144-156.
    5. Guildo W. Imbens, 2003. "Sensitivity to Exogeneity Assumptions in Program Evaluation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 126-132, May.
    6. Chijioke O. Nwosu & Umakrishnan Kollamparambil & Adeola Oyenubi, 2022. "Food insecurity and health outcomes during the coronavirus pandemic in South Africa: a longitudinal study," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Dorrit Posel & Adeola Oyenubi & Umakrishnan Kollamparambil, 2021. "Job loss and mental health during the COVID-19 lockdown: Evidence from South Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-15, March.
    8. Emily Oster, 2019. "Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 187-204, April.
    9. repec:fpr:export:1341 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel, 2019. "Consumer Spending during Unemployment: Positive and Normative Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(7), pages 2383-2424, July.
    11. Marcus, Jan, 2013. "The Effect of Unemployment on the Mental Health of Spouses – Evidence from plant closures in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 32(3), pages 546-558.
    12. Rosenbaum, Paul R., 2010. "Design Sensitivity and Efficiency in Observational Studies," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 692-702.
    13. Heejung Bang & James M. Robins, 2005. "Doubly Robust Estimation in Missing Data and Causal Inference Models," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 962-973, December.
    14. Vimal Ranchhod & Reza Che Daniels, 2021. "Labour Market Dynamics in South Africa at the Onset of the COVID‐19 Pandemic," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(1), pages 44-62, March.
    15. repec:bla:devpol:v:24:y:2006:i:5:p:537-552 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:fth:prinin:455 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. John Hoddinott & Susanna Sandström & Joanna Upton, 2018. "The Impact of Cash and Food Transfers: Evidence from a Randomized Intervention in Niger," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1032-1049.
    18. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 772-793, September.
    19. Melvin Stephens, 2004. "Job Loss Expectations, Realizations, and Household Consumption Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 253-269, February.
    20. Case, Anne & Deaton, Angus, 1998. "Large Cash Transfers to the Elderly in South Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1330-1361, September.
    21. Gruber, Jonathan, 1997. "The Consumption Smoothing Benefits of Unemployment Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 192-205, March.
    22. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    23. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Working Papers 834, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    24. Iacus, Stefano M. & King, Gary & Porro, Giuseppe, 2012. "Causal Inference without Balance Checking: Coarsened Exact Matching," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, January.
    25. Johannes Haushofer & Jeremy Shapiro, 2016. "The Short-term Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers to the Poor: ExperimentalEvidence from Kenya," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1973-2042.
    26. Roth, Jonathan & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Bilinski, Alyssa & Poe, John, 2023. "What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2218-2244.
    27. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    28. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Coromaldi, Manuela & D’Amato, Alessio & Mirra, Loredana, 2026. "The hidden social costs of climate change: Evidence on weather shocks, children’s mobility and rural economic welfare in Uganda," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    2. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido Imbens, 2023. "Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey," Papers 2311.15458, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    3. Bao Hoang Nguyen & Shawna Grosskopf & Jongsay Yong & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2024. "Activity‐based funding reform and the performance of public hospitals: The case of Queensland, Australia," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(4), pages 1679-1701, October.
    4. Li, Daiyue & Jin, Yanhong & Cheng, Mingwang, 2024. "Unleashing the power of industrial robotics on firm productivity: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 500-520.
    5. Mark Kattenberg & Bas Scheer & Jurre Thiel, 2023. "Causal forests with fixed effects for treatment effect heterogeneity in difference-in-differences," CPB Discussion Paper 452, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Bhorat, Haroon & Köhler, Timothy, 2025. "The labour market effects of cash transfers to the unemployed: Evidence from South Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    7. Costi, Chiara & Hollingsworth, Bruce & O'Sullivan, Vincent & Zucchelli, Eugenio, 2023. "Does caring for others affect our mental health? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    8. Athey, Susan & Imbens, Guido W., 2022. "Design-based analysis in Difference-In-Differences settings with staggered adoption," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 62-79.
    9. Costa-Font, Joan & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi & Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina, 2022. "Do Public Caregiving Subsidies and Supports affect the Provision of Care and Transfers?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2024. "Estimating Causal Effects with Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," IFRO Working Paper 2024/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    11. Gregory Faletto, 2023. "Fused Extended Two-Way Fixed Effects for Difference-in-Differences With Staggered Adoptions," Papers 2312.05985, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    12. Tatsuru Kikuchi, 2025. "Treatment Effects with Correlated Spillovers: Bridging Discrete and Continuous Methods," Papers 2512.12653, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    13. Dalia Ghanem & Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna & Kaspar Wüthrich, 2022. "Selection and Parallel Trends," CESifo Working Paper Series 9910, CESifo.
    14. Rüttenauer, Tobias & Kapelle, Nicole, 2024. "Panel Data Analysis," SocArXiv 3mfzq, Center for Open Science.
    15. Bukin, Eduard & Robinson, Sarah & Petrick, Martin, 2025. "The effects of land privatization on pasture productivity in south-eastern Kazakhstan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 158, pages 1-18.
    16. Alex Hollingsworth & Krzysztof Karbownik & Melissa A. Thomasson & Anthony Wray, 2024. "The Gift of a Lifetime: The Hospital, Modern Medicine, and Mortality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(7), pages 2201-2238, July.
    17. Stefan Bauernschuster & Michael Grimm & Cathy M. Hajo, 2023. "The Impact of Margaret Sanger’s Birth Control Clinics on Early 20th Century U.S. Fertility and Mortality," CESifo Working Paper Series 10421, CESifo.
    18. Guo, Naijia & Huang, Wei & Wang, Ruixin, 2025. "Public pensions and family dynamics: Eldercare, child investment, and son preference in rural China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    19. Ben Deaner & Chen-Wei Hsiang & Andrei Zeleneev, 2025. "Inferring Treatment Effects in Large Panels by Uncovering Latent Similarities," Papers 2503.20769, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    20. Yan, Wenying & Chen, Yusheng & Wang, Yanmei, 2025. "Efficiency improvement effect of clean energy transformation —A quasi-natural experiment based on China's clean heating policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:1734. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.