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Declining inflows and more frequent droughts in the Murray-Darling Basin: climate change, impacts and adaptation

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  • David Adamson
  • Thilak Mallawaarachchi
  • John Quiggin

Abstract

It is likely that climate change will be associated with reductions in inflows of water to the Murray-Darling Basin. In this study, we analyse the effects of climate change in the Murray-Darling Basin using a simulation model that incorporates a state-contingent representation of uncertainty. The severity of the impact depends, in large measure, on the extent to which climate change is manifested as an increase in the frequency of drought conditions. Adaptation will partially offset the adverse impact of climate change. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • David Adamson & Thilak Mallawaarachchi & John Quiggin, 2009. "Declining inflows and more frequent droughts in the Murray-Darling Basin: climate change, impacts and adaptation ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(3), pages 345-366, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:53:y:2009:i:3:p:345-366
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8489.2009.00451.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alaouze, Chris M, 1991. "Intertemporal Water Transfers and Drought," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(56), pages 114-127, June.
    2. Adamson, David & Mallawaarachchi, Thilak & Quiggin, John, 2004. "Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 149844, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    3. Freebairn, John W. & Quiggin, John C., 2006. "Water rights for variable supplies," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 50(3), pages 1-18.
    4. Chambers,Robert G. & Quiggin,John, 2000. "Uncertainty, Production, Choice, and Agency," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785235, May.
    5. Flowerdew, Robin & Green, Mick, 1992. "Developments in Areal Interpolation Methods and GIS," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 26(1), pages 67-78, April.
    6. John Quiggin & Robert G. Chambers, 2004. "Drought policy: a graphical analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 48(2), pages 225-251, June.
    7. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
    8. John Quiggin, 1988. "Murray River Salinity—An Illustrative Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(3), pages 635-645.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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