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Declining inflows and more frequent droughts in the Murray–Darling Basin: climate change, impacts and adaption

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  • John Quiggin

    (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)

Abstract

It is likely that climate change will be associated with reductions in inflows of water to the Murray–Darling Basin In this paper, we analyse the effects of climate change in the Murray–Darling Basin, using a simulation model that incorporates a state-contingent representation of uncertainty. The severity of the impact depends, in large measure, on the extent to which climate change is manifested as an increase in the frequency of drought conditions. Adaptation will partially offset the adverse impact of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • John Quiggin, "undated". "Declining inflows and more frequent droughts in the Murray–Darling Basin: climate change, impacts and adaption," Climate Change Working Papers WPC07_2, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland.
  • Handle: RePEc:rsm:climte:c07_2
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    File URL: http://www.uq.edu.au/rsmg/WP/WPC07_2.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Freebairn & John Quiggin, 2006. "Water rights for variable supplies ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 50(3), pages 295-312, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Monjardino, Marta & Harrison, Matthew T. & DeVoil, Peter & Rodriguez, Daniel & Sadras, Victor O., 2022. "Agronomic and on-farm infrastructure adaptations to manage economic risk in Australian irrigated broadacre systems: A case study," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    2. Chi Truong, 2012. "An Analysis of Storage Capacity Reallocation Impacts on the Irrigation Sector," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(1), pages 141-159, January.
    3. John Quiggin, 2010. "Agriculture and global climate stabilization: a public good analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 121-132, November.
    4. John Quiggin & David Adamson & Sarah Chambers & Peggy Schrobback, 2010. "Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Adaptation: The Case of Irrigated Agriculture in the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 58(4), pages 531-554, December.
    5. Kirby, Mac & Bark, Rosalind & Connor, Jeff & Qureshi, M. Ejaz & Keyworth, Scott, 2014. "Sustainable irrigation: How did irrigated agriculture in Australia's Murray–Darling Basin adapt in the Millennium Drought?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 154-162.
    6. Rupert Quentin Grafton & Qiang Jiang, 2011. "Economic effects of water recovery on irrigated agriculture in the Murray‐Darling Basin," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(4), pages 487-499, October.
    7. Adamson, David, 2013. "Buying Paper and Giving Gold: The Murray Darling Basin Plan," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 156481, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    8. Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Cockfield, Geoff & White, Neil & Jakeman, Guy, 2014. "Modelling interactions between farm-level structural adjustment and a regional economy: A case of the Australian rice industry," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 34-42.
    9. Adamson, David & Loch, Adam, 2014. "Possible negative feedbacks from ‘gold-plating’ irrigation infrastructure," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 134-144.
    10. Adamson, David, 2013. "Can Australia become the Food Bowl of Asia?," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 157080, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    11. Connor, Jeffery D. & Schwabe, Kurt & King, Darran & Knapp, Keith, 2012. "Irrigated agriculture and climate change: The influence of water supply variability and salinity on adaptation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 149-157.
    12. Adamson, David, 2010. "Climate change, Irrigation and Pests: Examining Heliothis in the Murray Darling Basin," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 149879, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    13. Claire Settre & Jeff Connor & Sarah Ann Wheeler, 2017. "Reviewing the Treatment of Uncertainty in Hydro-economic Modeling of the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-35, July.
    14. David Adamson & Adam Loch & Kurt Schwabe, 2017. "Adaptation responses to increasing drought frequency," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 61(3), pages 385-403, July.
    15. Nordblom, T.L. & Hume, I.H. & Finlayson, J.D. & Pannell, D.J. & Holland, J.E. & McClintock, A.J., 2015. "Distributional consequences of upstream tree plantations on downstream water users in a Public–Private Benefit Framework," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 271-281.
    16. John Quiggin & David Adamson & Sarah Chambers & Peggy Schrobback, 2009. "Climate change, mitigation and adaptation: the case of the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia," Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WP3M09, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland.
    17. Huong Dinh & Ben Freyens & Anne Daly & Yogi Vidyattama, 2017. "Measuring Community Economic Resilience in Australia: Estimates of Recent Levels and Trends," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 1217-1236, July.
    18. Jiang, Qiang & Grafton, R. Quentin, 2012. "Economic effects of climate change in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 10-16.
    19. Loch, Adam & Adamson, David & Mallawaarachchi, Thilak, 2013. "Hydrology and Economics in Water Management Policy under Increasing uncertainty," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 156479, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    20. Adam Loch & David Adamson, 2015. "Drought and the rebound effect: a Murray–Darling Basin example," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(3), pages 1429-1449, December.
    21. Simmons, Aaron T. & Perovic, David J. & Roth, Guy, 2022. "Making waves – Are water scarcity footprints of irrigated agricultural commodities suitable to inform consumer decisions?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    22. Adamson, David & Loch, Adam, 2013. "Natural capital and climate change: Possible negative sustainability impacts from 'gold plating' irrigation infrastructure," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 156480, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    23. Ashantha Goonetilleke & Tan Yigitcanlar & Godwin A. Ayoko & Prasanna Egodawatta, 2014. "Sustainable Urban Water Environment," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14894.
    24. Ejaz Qureshi, M. & Hanjra, Munir A. & Ward, John, 2013. "Impact of water scarcity in Australia on global food security in an era of climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 136-145.
    25. Glyn Wittwer & Robert Waschik, 2021. "Estimating the economic impacts of the 2017–2019 drought and 2019–2020 bushfires on regional NSW and the rest of Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(4), pages 918-936, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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