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Climate change, uncertainty and adaptation: the case of irrigated agriculture in the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia

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  • Quiggin, John
  • Adamson, David
  • Chambers, Sarah
  • Schrobback, Peggy

Abstract

Climate change is likely to have substantial effects on irrigated agriculture. Extreme climate events such as droughts are likely to become more common. These patterns are evident in median projections of climate change for the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia. Understanding climate change effects on returns from irrigation involves explicit representation of spatial changes in natural stocks (i.e. water supply) and their temporal variability (i.e. frequency of drought states of nature) and the active management responses to capital stocks represented by mitigation and alternative adaptation strategies by state of nature . A change in the frequency of drought will induce a change in the allocation of land and water between productive activities. In this paper, a simulation model of state-contingent production is used to analyze the effects of climate change adaptation and mitigation. In the absence of mitigation, climate change will have severe adverse effects on irrigated agriculture in the Basin. However, a combination of climate mitigation and adaptation through changes in land and water use will allow the maintenance of agricultural water use and environmental flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Quiggin, John & Adamson, David & Chambers, Sarah & Schrobback, Peggy, 2010. "Climate change, uncertainty and adaptation: the case of irrigated agriculture in the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 152096, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uqsers:152096
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.152096
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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