IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uqsers/152096.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate change, uncertainty and adaptation: the case of irrigated agriculture in the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Quiggin, John
  • Adamson, David
  • Chambers, Sarah
  • Schrobback, Peggy

Abstract

Climate change is likely to have substantial effects on irrigated agriculture. Extreme climate events such as droughts are likely to become more common. These patterns are evident in median projections of climate change for the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia. Understanding climate change effects on returns from irrigation involves explicit representation of spatial changes in natural stocks (i.e. water supply) and their temporal variability (i.e. frequency of drought states of nature) and the active management responses to capital stocks represented by mitigation and alternative adaptation strategies by state of nature . A change in the frequency of drought will induce a change in the allocation of land and water between productive activities. In this paper, a simulation model of state-contingent production is used to analyze the effects of climate change adaptation and mitigation. In the absence of mitigation, climate change will have severe adverse effects on irrigated agriculture in the Basin. However, a combination of climate mitigation and adaptation through changes in land and water use will allow the maintenance of agricultural water use and environmental flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Quiggin, John & Adamson, David & Chambers, Sarah & Schrobback, Peggy, 2010. "Climate change, uncertainty and adaptation: the case of irrigated agriculture in the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 152096, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uqsers:152096
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/152096/files/WPC10_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Adamson & Thilak Mallawaarachchi & John Quiggin, 2009. "Declining inflows and more frequent droughts in the Murray-Darling Basin: climate change, impacts and adaptation ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(3), pages 345-366, July.
    2. Alan Randall, 1981. "Property Entitlements And Pricing Policies For A Maturing Water Economy," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 25(3), pages 195-220, December.
    3. Adamson, David & Mallawaarachchi, Thilak & Quiggin, John, 2004. "Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 149844, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    4. Quiggin, John C., 2001. "Environmental economics and the Murray-Darling river system," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 0(Issue 1), pages 1-28.
    5. Brown, Colin G. & Drynan, Ross G., 1986. "Plant Location Analysis Using Discrete Stochastic Programming," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-22, April.
    6. Kingwell, Ross S. & Pannell, David J. & Robinson, Stephen D., 1993. "Tactical responses to seasonal conditions in whole-farm planning in Western Australia," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 211-226, March.
    7. Randall, Alan, 1981. "Property Entitlements And Pricing Policies For A Maturing Water Economy," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-26, December.
    8. Chambers,Robert G. & Quiggin,John, 2000. "Uncertainty, Production, Choice, and Agency," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521622448, August.
    9. Kingwell, R. S., 1994. "Risk attitude and dryland farm management," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 191-202.
    10. Carlo Carraro & Francesco Bosello & Enrica De Cian, 2009. "An Analysis of Adaptation as a Response to Climate Change," Working Papers 2009_26, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    11. K. D. Cocks, 1968. "Discrete Stochastic Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 72-79, September.
    12. Colin G. Brown & Ross G. Drynan, 1986. "Plant Location Analysis Using Discrete Stochastic Programming1," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 30(1), pages 1-22, April.
    13. Flowerdew, Robin & Green, Mick, 1992. "Developments in Areal Interpolation Methods and GIS," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 26(1), pages 67-78, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert G. Chambers & Atakelty Hailu & John Quiggin, 2011. "Event‐specific data envelopment models and efficiency analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(1), pages 90-106, January.
    2. repec:spr:climat:v:148:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2182-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Adamson, David & Loch, Adam, 2014. "Possible negative feedbacks from ‘gold-plating’ irrigation infrastructure," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 134-144.
    4. Hjort, Ingrid, 2016. "Potential Climate Risks in Financial Markets: A Literature Overview," Memorandum 01/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    5. John Quiggin, 2010. "Agriculture and global climate stabilization: a public good analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 121-132, November.
    6. Adamson, David & Loch, Adam, 2013. "Natural capital and climate change: Possible negative sustainability impacts from 'gold plating' irrigation infrastructure," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 156480, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    7. Connor, Jeffery D. & Schwabe, Kurt & King, Darran & Knapp, Keith, 2012. "Irrigated agriculture and climate change: The influence of water supply variability and salinity on adaptation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 149-157.
    8. Sarah Ayeri Ogalleh & Christian R. Vogl & Josef Eitzinger & Michael Hauser, 2012. "Local Perceptions and Responses to Climate Change and Variability: The Case of Laikipia District, Kenya," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(12), pages 1-24, December.
    9. Islam, Nazrul & Xayavong, Vilaphonh & Anderton, Lucy & Feldman, David, 2014. "Farm productivity in an Australian region affected by a changing climate," 2014 Conference (58th), February 4-7, 2014, Port Macquarie, Australia 165842, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    10. repec:ags:aareaj:260086 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Elwin G. Smith & Mark E. Eiswerth & Terrence S. Veeman, 2010. "Current and Emerging Water Issues in Agriculture: An Overview," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 58(s1), pages 403-409, December.
    12. Wheeler, Sarah Ann & Zuo, Alec & Loch, Adam, 2015. "Watering the farm: Comparing organic and conventional irrigation water use in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 78-85.
    13. Loch, Adam & Adamson, David & Mallawaarachchi, Thilak, 2013. "Hydrology and Economics in Water Management Policy under Increasing uncertainty," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 156479, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    14. repec:wsi:wepxxx:v:03:y:2017:i:03:n:s2382624x16500429 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Truong, Chi & Trück, Stefan, 2016. "It’s not now or never: Implications of investment timing and risk aversion on climate adaptation to extreme events," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(3), pages 856-868.
    16. Islam, Nazrul & Xayavong, Vilaphonh & Kingwell, Ross S., 2011. "Broadacre Farm Productivity And Profitability In South Western Australia," 2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia 100565, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    17. repec:eee:agiwat:v:199:y:2018:i:c:p:148-156 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Allyson Williams & Neil White & Shahbaz Mushtaq & Geoff Cockfield & Brendan Power & Louis Kouadio, 2015. "Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 183-196, March.
    19. Adam Loch & David Adamson, 2015. "Drought and the rebound effect: a Murray–Darling Basin example," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(3), pages 1429-1449, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uqsers:152096. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/decuqau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.