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Climate change, mitigation and adaptation: the case of the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia

  • John Quiggin

    ()

    (Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland)

  • David Adamson

    ()

    (Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland)

  • Sarah Chambers

    ()

    (Risk & Sustainable Management Group, School of Economics, University of Queensland)

  • Peggy Schrobback

    ()

    (Risk & Sustainable Management Group, School of Economics, University of Queensland)

Climate change is likely to have substantial effects on irrigated agriculture. It is anticipated that many areas that are already dry will become drier, while areas that already receive high rainfall may experience further increases. Extreme climate events such as droughts are likely to become more common. These patterns are evident in projections of climate change for the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia. To understand the effects of climate change, as modified by mitigation and adaptation, active management responses designed to improve returns in particular states of nature, such as in the case of drought must be considered. A change in the frequency of drought will induce a change in the allocation of land and water between productive activities. Even with action to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at or near current levels, climate change will continue for some decades and adaptation will therefore be necessary. Conversely, most adaptation strategies are feasible only if the rate and extent of climate change is limited by mitigation. In this paper, a simulation model of state-contingent production is used to analyze these issues.

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Paper provided by Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland in its series Murray-Darling Program Working Papers with number WP3M09.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:rsm:murray:m09_3
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  1. Adamson, David & Quiggin, John C. & Mallawaarachchi, Thilak, 2005. "Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray Darling Basin in a world of Uncertainty," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 137740, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  2. John Quiggin, . "Declining inflows and more frequent droughts in the Murray–Darling Basin: climate change, impacts and adaption," Climate Change Working Papers WPC07_2, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland.
  3. Kingwell, Ross S. & Pannell, David J. & Robinson, Stephen D., 1993. "Tactical responses to seasonal conditions in whole-farm planning in Western Australia," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 211-226, March.
  4. Carlo Carraro & Francesco Bosello & Enrica De Cian, 2009. "An Analysis of Adaptation as a Response to Climate Change," Working Papers 2009_26, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  5. Randall, Alan, 1981. "Property Entitlements And Pricing Policies For A Maturing Water Economy," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 25(03), December.
  6. Quiggin, John C. & Horowitz, John K., 2003. "Costs of adjustment to climate change," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(4), December.
  7. K. D. Cocks, 1968. "Discrete Stochastic Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 72-79, September.
  8. Alan Randall, 1981. "Property Entitlements And Pricing Policies For A Maturing Water Economy," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 25(3), pages 195-220, December.
  9. Kingwell, R. S., 1994. "Risk attitude and dryland farm management," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 191-202.
  10. Brown, Colin G. & Drynan, Ross G., 1986. "Plant Location Analysis Using Discrete Stochastic Programming," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 30(01), April.
  11. Colin G. Brown & Ross G. Drynan, 1986. "Plant Location Analysis Using Discrete Stochastic Programming1," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 30(1), pages 1-22, 04.
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