Risk and water management in the Murray-Darling Basin

Most settled parts of Australia, notably including the Murray-Darling Basin, experience low and highly variable rainfall levels. Both medium-term cycles such as the Southern Oscillation and longer term climate change contribute uncertainty in additional to that arising from seasonal fluctuations. It follows that uncertainty is an inherent feature of water management in Australia. In addition, the policy process itself generates uncertainty. As new knowledge about water systems emerges and new demands, such as increased concerns about environmental flows, arise, policies must adjust. The adjustment process inevitably creates uncertainty for both new and existing water users. It follows that the allocation of risk and uncertainty is a crucial problem in the design of institutions for water management in Australia.