IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/agecon/v56y2025i6p1192-1206.html

Will the “True” Productivity Series Please Stand Up? Identifying Inconsistencies Across Productivity Series

Author

Listed:
  • Sergio H. Lence
  • Alejandro Plastina

Abstract

We conduct a systematic empirical investigation into the consistency of competing industry‐level total factor productivity (TFP) series in the United States, including the crop and animal production or farm sector. We apply an algorithm based on time‐series methods to three widely‐used databases frequently utilized by researchers to study productivity. Our analysis reveals a substantial proportion of inconsistent industry‐level TFP series across these databases, including those for the farm sector. We further investigate the potential causes of such discrepancies by examining the consistency of the individual output and input variables used in the calculation of the TFP series. Individual input and output series pairs show different patterns of inconsistency across databases. Our findings highlight the need for publishing agencies and researchers to explore opportunities for methodological standardization.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio H. Lence & Alejandro Plastina, 2025. "Will the “True” Productivity Series Please Stand Up? Identifying Inconsistencies Across Productivity Series," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 56(6), pages 1192-1206, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:56:y:2025:i:6:p:1192-1206
    DOI: 10.1111/agec.70056
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70056
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/agec.70056?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan McCunn & Wallace E. Huffman, 2000. "Convergence in U.S. Productivity Growth for Agriculture: Implications of Interstate Research Spillovers for Funding Agricultural Research," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(2), pages 370-388.
    2. repec:bla:scandj:v:98:y:1996:i:2:p:303-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Alejandro Plastina & Sergio H Lence, 2018. "A Parametric Estimation of Total Factor Productivity and Its Components in U.S. Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1091-1119.
    4. Poudel, Biswo N. & Paudel, Krishna P. & Zilberman, David, 2011. "Agricultural Productivity Convergence: Myth or Reality?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(01), pages 1-14, February.
    5. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: What Do the Industry Data Say?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1559-1576, December.
    6. Corby Garner & Justin Harper & Matt Russell & Jon Samuels, 2021. "Integrated BEA/BLS Industry-Level Production Account and the Sources of U.S. Economic Growth," Survey of Current Business, Bureau of Economic Analysis, vol. 101(4), pages 1-7, April.
    7. V. Eldon Ball & Charles Hallahan & Richard Nehring, 2004. "Convergence of Productivity: An Analysis of the Catch-up Hypothesis within a Panel of States," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1315-1321.
    8. Bart van Ark & Mary O'Mahoney & Marcel P. Timmer, 2008. "The Productivity Gap between Europe and the United States: Trends and Causes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 25-44, Winter.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    10. James G. MacKinnon & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2014. "Numerical Distribution Functions Of Fractional Unit Root And Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 161-171, January.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    12. Robert G. Chambers & Simone Pieralli, 2020. "The Sources of Measured US Agricultural Productivity Growth: Weather, Technological Change, and Adaptation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1198-1226, August.
    13. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    14. Alejandro Plastina & Sergio H. Lence & Ariel Ortiz‐Bobea, 2021. "How weather affects the decomposition of total factor productivity in U.S. agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(2), pages 215-234, March.
    15. Rodrigo Garcia‐Verdu & Alexis Meyer‐Cirkel & Akira Sasahara & Hans Weisfeld, 2022. "Importing inputs for climate change mitigation: The case of agricultural productivity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 34-56, February.
    16. Yu Jin & Wallace E. Huffman, 2016. "Measuring public agricultural research and extension and estimating their impacts on agricultural productivity: new insights from U.S. evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(1), pages 15-31, January.
    17. Fuglie, Keith, 2015. "Accounting for growth in global agriculture," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 4(3), pages 1-34, December.
    18. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea & Toby R. Ault & Carlos M. Carrillo & Robert G. Chambers & David B. Lobell, 2021. "Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 306-312, April.
    19. Capalbo, Susan Marie, 1988. "Measuring The Components Of Aggregate Productivity Growth In U.S. Agriculture," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(01), pages 1-10, July.
    20. Hualde, Javier, 2013. "A simple test for the equality of integration orders," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 233-237.
    21. Fuglie, Keith O. & Heisey, Paul W., 2007. "Economic Returns to Public Agricultural Research," Economic Brief 6388, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    22. Julian M Alston, 2018. "Reflections on Agricultural R&D, Productivity, and the Data Constraint: Unfinished Business, Unsettled Issues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(2), pages 392-413.
    23. Corby Garner & Justin Harper & Matt Russell & Jon Samuels, 2021. "Integrated BEA/BLS Industry-Level Production Account and the Sources of U.S. Economic Growth," Survey of Current Business, Bureau of Economic Analysis, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michée A. Lachaud & Boris E. Bravo‐Ureta, 2021. "Agricultural productivity growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: an analysis of climatic effects, catch‐up and convergence," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(1), pages 143-170, January.
    2. S. C. West & A. W. Mugera & R. S. Kingwell, 2022. "The choice of efficiency benchmarking metric in evaluating firm productivity and viability," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 193-211, April.
    3. Wang, Sun Ling & Hoppe, Robert A. & Hertz, Thomas & Xu, Shicong, "undated". "Farm Labor, Human Capital, and Agricultural Productivity in the United States," USDA Miscellaneous 323858, United States Department of Agriculture.
    4. Eric Njuki & Boris E. Bravo-Ureta, 2019. "Examining irrigation productivity in U.S. agriculture using a single-factor approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 125-136, June.
    5. Philipp Adämmer & Martin T. Bohl, 2018. "Price discovery dynamics in European agricultural markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 549-562, May.
    6. Federico Carlini & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2019. "Resuscitating the co-fractional model of Granger (1986)," CREATES Research Papers 2019-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Niels Haldrup & Carsten P. T. Rosenskjold, 2019. "A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Katarzyna Łasak & Carlos Velasco, 2015. "Fractional Cointegration Rank Estimation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 241-254, April.
    9. Malin Gardberg & Lorenzo (L.C.G.) Pozzi, 2018. "Consumption and wealth in the long run: an integrated unobserved component approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-046/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Sep 2018.
    10. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang & Liyu Liu, 2023. "Asymmetric price adjustment and price discovery in spot and futures markets of agricultural commodities," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 27(1), pages 139-162, February.
    11. Wang, Sun Ling & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Xiaobing & Tuan, Francis, 2016. "China’s Regional Agricultural Productivity Growth: Catching Up or Lagging Behind," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235709, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Vadim Kufenko & Niels Geiger, 2016. "Business cycles in the economy and in economics: an econometric analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 107(1), pages 43-69, April.
    13. Wang, S.L. & Huang, J. & Wang, X. & Tuan, F., 2018. "Convergence in China's Regional Agricultural Productivity: Catching up or Lagging Behind?," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276051, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Stefan Wimmer & Robert Finger, 2026. "Productivity dispersion and persistence in European agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 108(1), pages 204-231, January.
    15. Sabasi, Darlington & Shumway, C. Richard, 2014. "Technical Change, Efficiency, and Total Factor Productivity in U.S. Agriculture," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170225, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Christian Leschinski & Michelle Voges & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2021. "A comparison of semiparametric tests for fractional cointegration," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1997-2030, August.
    17. Alexander Boca Saravia & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2022. "Presidential approval in Peru: an empirical analysis using a fractionally cointegrated VAR," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1973-2010, August.
    18. Stefan Wimmer & K Hervé Dakpo, 2023. "Components of agricultural productivity change: Replication of US evidence and extension to the EU," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(3), pages 1332-1355, September.
    19. Alejandro Plastina & Sergio H. Lence & Ariel Ortiz‐Bobea, 2021. "How weather affects the decomposition of total factor productivity in U.S. agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(2), pages 215-234, March.
    20. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817707, Enero-Abr.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:56:y:2025:i:6:p:1192-1206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.