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Regresión del cuantil aplicada al modelo de redes neuronales artificiales

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  • Charle Augusto Londoño

Abstract

Existen diversas metodologías para calcular el valor en riesgo (VaR) que pretenden capturar principalmente el riesgo de mercado al que están expuestas las instituciones financieras. Siendo el modelo de valor en riesgo condicional autorregresivo (CAViaR) de Engle y Manganelli (1999, 2001, 2004) una buena aproximación empírica para la verdadera medida VaR, tanto para cubrir el riesgo como para el cumplimiento de la regulación bancaria. Por consiguiente, el objetivo de este artículo es realizar una aproximación al modelo CAViaR para el mercado de valores colombiano, empleando diferentes factores de riesgo macroeconómicos y financieros como los esbozados en Chernozhukov y Umantsev (2001); además, se busca establecer qué regla empírica permite una mejor captura del comportamiento del índice general de la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (IGBC).

Suggested Citation

  • Charle Augusto Londoño, 2011. "Regresión del cuantil aplicada al modelo de redes neuronales artificiales," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 29(64), pages 62-109, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:29:y:2011:i:64:p:62-109
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.6403
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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