The Politics of Populism, Ethnic Polarization, and the recent Military coups in West African countries: A focus on Niger and Mali

Recent waves of military coups in West African countries since 2020 have led to concerns regarding the region's political landscape. This paper attempts to disentangle the causes of the rise of military coups by understanding how populist mobilization of the already present ethnic polarization increases the likelihood of the emergence of military coups in West African countries. While there is vast literature on ethnic polarization, populism, and military coups, none has sought to investigate the intricate relationship between these three concepts. To understand this, first, I conceptualize and measure ethnic polarization as the degree of division or segregation between different ethnic groups within a country. Second, while it is difficult to measure populism, I employ content analysis software to observe the contents of the political speeches and public statements of the leaders of these military coups in my case studies to identify patterns of populist sentiment rhetoric, such as the claim to represent “the people,†anti-establishment stands, and reference to the majority against the corrupt political elites. Third, by adopting a qualitative in-depth approach, this comparative study focuses on the case of Niger and Mali to establish the causal mechanisms linking the IVs and the DV. Lastly, I examined alternative explanations that could influence the likelihood of military coups in these countries.