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A Fractional ARIMA (ARFIMA) Model in the Analysis of Historical Crude Oil Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Manuel Monge
  • Juan Infante

    (Economics, Universidad Francisco de Vitoria, Spain)

Abstract

We investigate historical data for crude oil prices using autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models to determine whether shocks in the series have transitory or permanent effects. Our best specification is an ARFIMA(2,d,2) with an estimated value of d around 0.4, but its confidence interval is wide and does not allow us to either reject the I(0) or the I(1) hypotheses. This high level of uncertainty may be due to the presence of breaks or non-linear trends in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Monge & Juan Infante, 2023. "A Fractional ARIMA (ARFIMA) Model in the Analysis of Historical Crude Oil Prices," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-3.
    • Handle: RePEc:ayb:jrnerl:75
    DOI: 2023/03/14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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