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Desigualdade e Crescimento em Portugal: Uma Análise de Séries Temporais

Author

Listed:
  • João A. S. Andrade

    (GEMF – Group for Monetary and Financial Studies; Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra)

  • Adelaide P. S. Duarte

    (GEMF – Group for Monetary and Financial Studies; Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra)

  • Marta C. N. Simões

    (GEMF – Group for Monetary and Financial Studies; Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra)

Abstract

Em linha com o interesse recente e renovado sobre a relação entre desigualdade e crescimento, e o importante debate que subsiste sobre o sinal desta relação, analisamos esta questão para Portugal no período de 1985-2005 usando diferentes metodologias de séries temporais. Os resultados sugerem que a desigualdade de ganhos tem um impacto negativo no output, confirmando assim o ponto de vista de que a desigualdade é nociva ao crescimento económico. Além disso, e segundo os resultados decorrentes da análise das funções impulso-resposta baseadas no modelo preferido, um VAR estrutural (SVAR) trivariado, estes efeitos duram, nalguns casos, três anos após o choque de desigualdade. No tocante à educação, a terceira variável considerada nos nossos modelos SVAR, não se confirma a predição teórica de que mais desigualdade reduz a acumulação de capital humano; ao invés, os resultados apontam na direção oposta: um aumento da desigualdade de ganhos conduz a trabalhadores com mais educação. Assim, a confirmação de uma influência negativa da desigualdade sobre o output parece ser explicada porque implica mais redistribuição, com os efeitos distorcionários decorrentes dos impostos sobre o investimento.

Suggested Citation

  • João A. S. Andrade & Adelaide P. S. Duarte & Marta C. N. Simões, 2014. "Desigualdade e Crescimento em Portugal: Uma Análise de Séries Temporais," RPER, Associação Portuguesa para o Desenvolvimento Regional, issue 37, pages 29-42, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:apd:rper00:y:2014:i:37:id:424
    DOI: 10.59072/rper.vi37.424
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    References listed on IDEAS

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