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The Influence of the Regional Sectoral Structure on the Socio-Economic Development of Primorye Region

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  • K. G. Sorokozherdyev
  • K. A. Khodosov

Abstract

The paper analyzes the influence of the regional sectoral structure on the socio-economic development of the Primorye region. The subject of the research is the socio-economic development of the region. The purpose of the research is to analyze the role of the regional sectoral structure and each of its sectors separately in the socio-economic development of the region. The study examines industries such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, as well as the financial sector. The socio-economic development of the region is represented by such metrics as the average monthly wage per employee, the regional GRP and the birth rate. In this work, a regression model of the dependence of indicators of socio-economic development on the shares of the mentioned sectors of the regional economy in GRP is built. As a result, an autoregressive model with distributed lag (ADL-model) was obtained. The model reflects the relationship of endogenous indicators - average wages, GRP and the birth rate from economic activity in certain sectors of the regional economy. An important point is that exogenous indicators in the equations can be taken both directly for the corresponding period and with a time shift (lag), which is a feature of the ADL model. The results of the study make it possible to forecast the socio-economic development of the region for the medium term. The studies can be also applied in a scenario-based approach modeling the development of the region depending on the development of a particular sector of the regional economy. On the whole, the model makes it possible to evaluate the contribution of industries to the main indicators of socio-economic development, which can be useful also in the drafting of a regional development strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • K. G. Sorokozherdyev & K. A. Khodosov, 2020. "The Influence of the Regional Sectoral Structure on the Socio-Economic Development of Primorye Region," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 19(1), pages 60-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:aiy:jnjaer:v:19:y:2020:i:1:p:60-78
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2020.19.1.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael P. Clements & David F.Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting with difference-stationary and trend-stationary models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19.
    2. Daniela Glocker, 2018. "The Rise of Megaregions: Delineating a new scale of economic geography," OECD Regional Development Working Papers 2018/04, OECD Publishing.
    3. Robert Nizhegorodtsev & Elena Piskun & Viktoria Kudrevich, 2017. "The Forecasting of Regional Social and Economic Development," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 38-48.
    4. Galina Gagarina & Evgeniy Dzyuba & Roman Gubarev & Fanil Faizullin, 2017. "Forecasting of Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Regions," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1080-1094.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    socio-economic development; regional sectoral structure; Primorye region;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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