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The Evolution Of The Romanian Public Debt During The Last 10 Years

  • Lecturer Gheorghița Dincă Ph. D, Assoc. Prof. Marius Sorin Dincă Ph. D

    (Transilvania University of Brașov Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Brașov, Romania)

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    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the correlation between the evolution of the Romanian public debt and several variables which, in our opinion, might influence it, such as: the GDP, the volume of the public revenues and expenditures, the budgetary deficit as a ratio of GDP and as an absolute value, the public debt service, the Leu-Euro exchange rate and the implicit interest rate for public debt. In the econometric test of the relation between the public debt and the fore mentioned variables we used the multiple regression method. The results obtained from testing the model have shown that the public debt is greatly influenced by the public debt service, the exchange rate and the interest rate for public loans. In the same time, the model allows forecasts regarding the evolution of the public debt according to evolution of the significant variables.

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    File URL: http://feaa.ucv.ro/AUCSSE/0039v4-013.pdf
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    Article provided by University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its journal Annals of Computational Economics.

    Volume (Year): 4 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 39 (May)
    Pages: 100-109

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    Handle: RePEc:aio:aucsse:v:1:y:2011:i:10:p:100-109
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    1. Chalk, Nigel A., 2000. "The sustainability of bond-financed deficits: An overlapping generations approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 293-328, April.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-78, May.
    3. Barro, Robert J., 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Scholarly Articles 3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Neil Rankin & Barbara Roffia, 2003. "Maximum Sustainable Government Debt in the Overlapping Generations Model," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 217-241, 06.
    5. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner & David Stuckler, 2009. "Foreign Currency Debt, Financial Crises and Economic Growth: A Long Run View," NBER Working Papers 15534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hauner, David, 2009. "Public debt and financial development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 171-183, January.
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