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The Evolution Of The Romanian Public Debt During The Last 10 Years

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  • Lecturer Gheorghița Dincă Ph. D, Assoc. Prof. Marius Sorin Dincă Ph. D

    (Transilvania University of Brașov Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Brașov, Romania)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the correlation between the evolution of the Romanian public debt and several variables which, in our opinion, might influence it, such as: the GDP, the volume of the public revenues and expenditures, the budgetary deficit as a ratio of GDP and as an absolute value, the public debt service, the Leu-Euro exchange rate and the implicit interest rate for public debt. In the econometric test of the relation between the public debt and the fore mentioned variables we used the multiple regression method. The results obtained from testing the model have shown that the public debt is greatly influenced by the public debt service, the exchange rate and the interest rate for public loans. In the same time, the model allows forecasts regarding the evolution of the public debt according to evolution of the significant variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Lecturer Gheorghița Dincă Ph. D, Assoc. Prof. Marius Sorin Dincă Ph. D, 2011. "The Evolution Of The Romanian Public Debt During The Last 10 Years," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(39), pages 100-109, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aio:aucsse:v:1:y:2011:i:10:p:100-109
    as

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    File URL: http://feaa.ucv.ro/AUCSSE/0039v4-013.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    2. Chalk, Nigel A., 2000. "The sustainability of bond-financed deficits: An overlapping generations approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 293-328, April.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 573-578.
    4. Hauner, David, 2009. "Public debt and financial development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 171-183.
    5. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Stuckler, David, 2010. "Foreign currency debt, financial crises and economic growth: A long-run view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 642-665.
    6. Neil Rankin & Barbara Roffia, 2003. "Maximum Sustainable Government Debt in the Overlapping Generations Model," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 217-241, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    public debt; economic growth; public deficit; sustainability of the public finance; regression;

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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