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Makroekonometryczny miesięczny model gospodarki Polski WM-1

Author

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  • Welfe, Aleksander
  • Karp, Piotr

Abstract

The WM-1 model is the first macromodel of the Polish economy based on monthly data. Most time series are generated by non-stationary processes. Therefore the estimation has been made in such a way that it allows for the cointegration of the variables (ECM, TECM and CVAR models were used). This prevented spurious regressions and ensured appropriate statistical inference. A specification of all the behavioral equations follows economic theory. The model also exploits data from Input-Output tables. In the case of many important equations, the asymmetry of the reactions has been taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Welfe, Aleksander & Karp, Piotr, . "Makroekonometryczny miesięczny model gospodarki Polski WM-1," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2017(4).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:polgne:359131
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.359131
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    2. Robert Socha & Piotr Wdowiński, 2018. "Crude oil price and speculative activity: a cointegration analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(3), pages 263-304, September.
    3. Piotr Karp, 2015. "Asymetryczny wpływ zmian kursu walutowego na gospodarkę Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 6, pages 29-49.
    4. Magdalena Ulrichs & Emilia Gosińska, 2020. "Sektorowe funkcje produkcji - wnioski z modeli panelowych dla Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 71-94.

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    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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