Assessment of the impact of factors on the yield of strategic crops in Ukraine under climate change

Purpose. The purpose of this study is to provide a quantitative assessment of how climatic, agroecological, technological, and economic factors have influenced the yields of Ukraine’s strategic crops (wheat, sunflower, and corn) over the 2002–2023 period. Methodology. The study is based on a three-stage approach involving trend analysis (evaluation of volatility and long-term patterns), correlation analysis (identification of relationships and their strength), and construction of multiple linear regression models. According to the IPCC AR6 methodology, these models identify the influence of the following factors: climatic (temperature during the growing season, annual precipitation), agroecological (volume of greenhouse gas emissions, livestock population), technological (volume of organic and mineral fertilisers applied) and economic (sales prices of the previous year). Results. A stable positive dynamic of the yield of all three crops was revealed during 2002–2023: the average annual increase was 0.0706 t/ha for sunflowers (R² = 0.863), 0.0827 t/ha for wheat (R² = 0.663), and 0.1937 t/ha for corn (R² = 0.776). A strong positive correlation was found between yield and mineral fertiliser application per hectare for sunflowers (r = 0.838) and corn (r = 0.828), as well as with greenhouse gas emissions for all crops (r = 0.688–0.725). The relationship between climatic factors and yield was statistically insignificant or weak for most of the studied crops. GHG is a statistically significant determinant of yield for all studied crops (p = 0.006–0.011), confirming the dominance of technological intensification. A systemic gap was identified between the crop and livestock sectors due to a strong negative correlation between yields and cattle population (ranging from -0.74 to -0.90), indicating soil degradation in terms of organic matter content. A significant impact of organic fertilisers on wheat yield was recorded (p = 0.03). Originality. The study substantiates that technological progress and adaptation measures in Ukraine’s agricultural sector have partially mitigated the impact of climate variability on the yields of wheat, sunflower, and corn. Based on a quantitative assessment of factor influences, a novel agroecosystem management framework is proposed. This framework classifies crops according to their response to anthropogenic load into two distinct categories: the ‘energy-intensive growth group’ (corn and sunflower) and the ‘resistance group’ (wheat). Practical implications. The findings serve as a basis for developing adaptive strategies: transition to precision agriculture to optimise resource use and increase yields, breeding for drought resistance, and mandatory restoration of livestock farming based on the principles of a circular economy to improve soil fertility.