Modelling the impact of biogas production capacity and industrial determinants on electricity consumption in agriculture

Purpose. The paper aims to explore the relationships between biogas production capacity, economic, technological, and natural-resource factors, and electricity consumption in the agricultural sector of Ukraine and the EU countries. Methodology / approach. The study uses fixed effects panel econometric models to account for temporal and institutional heterogeneity in the data. The investigation is conducted for Ukraine and the EU countries, such as Germany, France, Italy, and Poland. The research is based on correlation and regression analysis using econometric modelling. The model includes indicators such as agricultural export and import, farmland area, crop and livestock production volumes, and the installed capacity of biogas plants. The Box-Cox transformation, normality tests (Jarque-Bera and Shapiro-Wilk), multicollinearity, and homoscedasticity tests (Breusch-Pagan and White) were applied to validate the model. Results. The modelling results for Ukraine indicate considerable potential for reducing electricity consumption in the agro-industrial sector through the development of biogas technologies. In this context, sustainable reduction scenarios are proposed for Ukraine based on investments in renewable energy. Observations for several EU countries with high biogas production levels suggest a tendency toward lower agricultural energy intensity; however, this relationship should be interpreted with caution, as it requires further empirical verification. A negative and statistically significant coefficient for Poland indicates that, under comparable levels of biogas-based electricity generation and export intensity, Poland’s agricultural sector tends to consume less electricity than the benchmark country (Germany), potentially reflecting more favourable structural or technological conditions for energy efficiency. Originality / scientific novelty. The novelty lies in developing and empirically validating a comprehensive model for assessing the impact of agribusiness on electricity consumption, with a specific focus on the role of biogas. Unlike existing studies, this article integrates economic, technological, and energy indicators to measure the complex interactions affecting energy consumption in agriculture. Practical value / implications. The results can inform energy management policies in agriculture, particularly in supporting renewable energy integration. The findings are relevant for government agencies, local authorities, agribusinesses, and international stakeholders in developing strategies for sustainable rural energy transitions and enhancing energy security.