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Costs and benefits of higher tariffs on wheat imports to South Africa

Author

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  • McDonald, Scott
  • Punt, Cecilia
  • Rantho, Lillian
  • van Schoor, Melt

Abstract

Low international wheat prices, caused by tariffs and subsidies in developed countries, have been blamed for causing financial difficulty to South African farmers. While indignation at unfair trade practices may be valid, it does not necessarily follow that protection of the local industry is the best response. This study uses a static general equilibrium model to describe and quantify the effects of increased tariffs (by up to 25 percentage points) on the local wheat industry, other affected industries-- particularly downstream industries-- and the economy at large. The effects on factors, households and the government are also analysed. The results show that the benefits to the wheat industry are highly concentrated and smaller than the loss of income caused in other sectors. Welfare is negatively affected, especially for low-income households, for whom the effects are exacerbated by increases in relative food prices.

Suggested Citation

  • McDonald, Scott & Punt, Cecilia & Rantho, Lillian & van Schoor, Melt, 2008. "Costs and benefits of higher tariffs on wheat imports to South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 47(1), pages 1-33, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:6031
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.6031
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/6031/files/47010019.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Meyer, Ferdinand H. & Westhoff, Patrick C. & Binfield, Julian C.R. & Kirsten, Johann F., 2006. "Model closure and price formation under switching grain market regimes in South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 45(4), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Robinson, Sherman & Kilkenny, Maureen & Hanson, Kenneth, 1990. "The USDA/ERS Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of the United States," Staff Reports 278341, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. van Schoor, Melt & Punt, Cecilia & McDonald, Scott, 2006. "Compiling National, Multiregional and Regional Social Accounting Matrices for South Africa," Technical Paper Series 58067, PROVIDE Project.
    4. Kilkenny, Maureen, 1991. "Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Agricultural Policies: Documentation of the 30-Sector FPGE GAMS Model of the United States," Staff Reports 278539, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. McDonald, Scott, 2005. "The PROVIDE Project Standard Computable General Equilibrium Model: Version 2," Technical Paper Series 15625, PROVIDE Project.
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